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The Odds are Against the Braves

I was slumming around ESPN and looking at the standings -- of course it didn't put me in a good mood. Two of the stat areas that ESPN has on their standings page are the percentage chance of winning the division and the wild card. Here are the Braves chances as of this morning:

Chance of winning the division:  6.8%
Chance of winning the wild card:  4.1%

And just to rub it in they combine those numbers into a team's chance to make the playoffs:

Braves chance of making the playoffs:  10.9%

So we've got a 1 in 10 chance of making the post-season at this point in the season -- that's pretty pitiful. It also goes to show you that the chances of making the playoffs reside almost exclusively within the Braves'  own division. With the moves that Chicago and Milwaukee made recently the wild card seems tougher to reach than the Eastern division lead. Even though no one in the East has really run away with the lead, the Phillies are still playing good baseball (6-and-4 in their last 10 games) and the Mets are starting to make a charge (8-and-2 in their last 10 games). Compare that with the way the Braves have been playing (3-and-7 in their last 10 games) and our odds of making the post-season have been getting worse instead of better.

This weekend series in San Diego may answer most of our questions. If we can't come away with two wins, then we will likely be closer to the bottom of the division than the top, and a possible sell-off may be inevitable. Our chances don't look too good, as we throw three rookie starting pitchers at the Padres verses their defending Cy Young pitcher, a rookie with a 3.08 ERA, and the Wolf-pack.

On the wheel of decision it may be time to lean towards the Red:


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