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Playoff Chances Nearing Zero

The Washington Nationals were the first team to be "statistically" eliminated from the post-season yesterday when their Alighieri Number hit .00000. The Braves are unfortunately not too far behind them in that inevitable probability factor. Those odds have us at a current 3.17% chance of making the post-season. Even ESPN's odds calculation have us at only a 5.8% chance of making the post-season. That's a drop from the 6.6% chance we were at one week ago, and the 11.9% chance we had at the All-Star break.

Even while we're talking about trading for Jason Bay, our shot at the post-season this year is going down the tubes. Add to these diminishing odds the injuries to Chipper Jones and Brian McCann and the sanity of the decision to only be buyers at the deadline has to be questioned.

The Braves should focus on getting (near) major league ready return for Mark Teixeira now. If they can swing a deal for Jason Bay by only giving up Lillibridge, B. Jones, and two low-level minor leaguers, then I say make that trade as well (or wait until the off-season when the price might be cheaper). If Will Ohman has good trade value, then we should move him as well. In short, my opinion is that we should be in full sell mode (while still keeping our options open for good deals on guys like Bay).

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