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PECOTA pegs Braves at 76 wins

Baseball Propectus’ projection system has the Braves improving during the 2017 season

Philadelphia Phillies v Atlanta Braves Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

We’re right around the corner from Spring Training, and with that people are starting to hand out their predictions for the 2017 season, or at least are gearing up to do so.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA is doing that for every team, and where Atlanta is concerned, 76* wins is the projection.

For those unfamiliar, PECOTA stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, and is comprised of three different elements:

  1. Major League equivalencies for MiLB players expected to earn playing time
  2. Baseline forecasts used to estimate players’ true talent levels
  3. Career path adjustments

Taken with the rest of the PECOTA projections, that would put the Braves in fourth place in the National League East, ahead of only the Phillies, who are projected for 72 wins.

Here’s how the entire NL East shakes out:

  1. New York Mets — 88*
  2. Washington Nationals — 87*
  3. Miami Marlins — 78*
  4. Atlanta Braves — 76*
  5. Philadelphia Phillies — 74*

You can check here for PECOTA’s full projections for the Major Leagues.

But, what do you guys think? Is 76* wins about what you would predict for the Braves in 2017? A little high? A little low? Let us know in the comments.

*PECOTA updated it’s projections shortly after this post was published. Originally the Braves were projected for 75 wins, while the rest of the NL East went as follows: Mets (87), Nationals (85), Marlins (76), Phillies (72). The numbers in the post are the current PECOTA projections.

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