FanPost

Rank your top 50 and beat the Pros

As you all are likely aware by now I consider how team and league prospect rankings are done to be flawed because:

(1) They rank way too many pitchers highly.

(2) They under rank super talented and far away prospects.

(3) Pedigree is overvalued.

Beyond that I have also developed a system to grade rankers across the board by using the combination of actual and projected WAR during six seasons (starting with rookie season) and six year projected WAR in KATOH system. KATOH is dead, but Ivan came up with a system that can serve as a replacement. Basically, I took grades from MLB, BA and FG and converted them to fair value then divided it by 8 to get to WAR. It comes off a bit light when compared to KATOH but given my Streamer multiplier is light (ie does not project WAR growth in latter seasons), I think this balances the graduates well with the prospects.

Last year I made an effort to rank 25 and see how I’d compare to the pros.

1) Benintendi

2) Rosario

3) Swanson

4) Bellinger

5) Moncada

6) Torres

7) Acuna

8) Robles

9) Senzel

10) Albies

11) Crawford

12) Devers

13) Maitan

14) Alvarez

15) Jimenez

16) Meadows

17) Moniak

18) Adames

19) Kopech

20) Guerrero

21) Mejia

22) Tucker

23) Bell

24) Rutherford

25) Reyes (Pre-Injury)

My list essentially generated a single comment:

Joe Jiminez, Michael Kopech, and Alex Reyes the only pitchers in the top 25? Aight then.

DudeYouCrazy.net: Georgia, the SEC, and often unintentional dumbassery.

by TarDawg1014 on Mar 16, 2017 | 10:40 AM rec flag

Indeed, I did have three pitchers above when we subtract Joe Jimenez (really Eloy) and replace him with Yadier Alvarez. Again, I built that list assuming pitching was the problem of lists not the solution. So how did I do against the pros? I scaled everything to a 100 grade scale with top marks going to the highest scorer. As with the Braves grade rankings I benefited being much higher on Acuna than the pros. Taking his success away I still would have finished a close second to BA. However, the experts once again missing on Acuna hurts them greatly in these grades.

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I should note I adjusted this to a simple points formula. So instead of the 10-20 multiplier I am using a 1 to 25 multipler. The downside is you get 25x the points for ranking a player 1st over 25th. The upside is you don’t get a 10x for listing a player 25th rather than 26th. Testing has allowed me to see that scale matters little.

Looking a year in the future not allocating slots to Anderson, Glasnow and Espinoza was something I did well, though the latter was an oversight on my part. The other young bats that I was fairly aggressive on were a mixed bag. Vlad Jr who Ben Chase was highest on and only other besides BA to list him paid off as well, but Moniak, Rutherford, and Maitan were all duds. I took a stab at some upside bats which meant I did not have to pick Honeywell or De Leon who are now missing an entire year.

This year I have expanded my list to a top 50. I have taken a renewed interest in fantasy baseball and thus actually have to be more aware of players outside the Braves system. I think it is hard to do a top 50 much less a top 100, so I am only able to compete on the top 50 next year with the Pros. So how does my list differ from the pros?

1) I only have 8 pitchers

2) I have two IAs from 2017-2018

3) Only two pitchers in top 20

4) I have two additional top talents from DSL ball (Canaria and Negret) along with Robert.

5) I am much higher on Soto

6) More young talent can make my top 50 like Lolo Sanchez who I don’t think made a top 100 list anywhere.

7) I was way more down on Ohtani than the Pros, and as I composed this at the start of spring training I would knock him further down.

8) Like with Ohtani I did not want to have extra info so that is why Honeywell is at 22 despite a TJ that would now knock him out.

Without further ado, here is my list.

1. Ronald Acuna, of, atl
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3b, tor
3. Victor Robles, of, was
4. Fernando Tatis Jr, ss, sd
5. Eloy Jimenez, of, chw
6. Gleyber Torres, ss, nyy
7. Nick Senzel, 3b, cin
8. Shohei Ohtani, rhp/of, laa
9. Juan Soto, of, was
10. Kyle Tucker, of, hou
11. Francisco Mejia, c, cle
12. Mackenzie Gore, lhp, sd
13. Royce Lewis, ss, min
14. Bo Bichette, ss, tor
15. Willy Adames, ss, tb
16. Scott Kingery, 2b, phi
17. JP Crawford, ss, phi
18. Keston Huira, 2b, mil
19. Jo Adell, of, laa
20. Heliot Ramos, of, sf
21. Jesus Sanchez, of, tb
22. Brent Honeywell, sp, tb
23. Carter Kieboom, 3b, was

24. Taylor Trammell, of, cin
25. AJ Puk, lhp, oak
26. Brendan Rodgers, ss, col
27. Yasel Antuna, ss, was
28. Lolo Sanchez, of, pit
29. Keibert Ruiz, c, lad
30. Christian Pache, of, atl

31. Forrest Whitley, rhp, hou
32. Brendan McKay, lhp/1b, tb
33. Luiz Gohara, lhp, atl
34. Alex Verdugo, of, lad
35. Nolan Jones, 3b, cle
36. Jhailyn Ortiz, of, phi
37. Alexander Canaria, of, sf
38. Luis Urias, 2b, sd
39. Wander Franco, ss, tb
40. Tristen Lutz, of, mil
41. Brandon Marsh, of, laa
42. Alex Reyes, rhp, stl
43. Hunter Greene, rhp, cin
44. Mitch Keller, rhp, pit
45. Michael Kopech, rhp, chw
46. Lewis Brinson, of, mia
47. Luis Robert, of, chw
48. Bubba Thompson, of, tex
49. Juan Carlos Negret, of, kc
50. George Valera, of, cle

This list fits very well with my definition of the most valuable fantasy prospects and I think that is actually how teams do so as well. Kiley McDaniel said something interesting about Acuna in rookie ball that he had to tell an opposing scout that he was not available for trade. If McDaniel as a team member said that Acuna was not available for trade then maybe teams do indeed value far away talent much more than the industry says they should. I actually asked Kiley this question:

12:03

Ty: If you had done a Braves list after 2015 where would you have ranked Acuna? Would you have been high man like on Albies the year before?

12:03

Kiley McDaniel: Yes

So he did not answer me directly as he skipped the complicated question but answered the easy one. He knew team rankings were way too light on Acuna after the 2015 season. Hence my list has lots of top candidates for the next proverbial Acuna.


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