FanPost

Braves' multi-year pursuits of Ozuna & Donaldson after their bet on themselves seasons in ATL


As we all know, in back to back seasons AA brought in a powerful RHH on a 1-yr, bet on himself contract to bat either ahead of or just behind the 2020 MVP Freddie Freeman. Both players went on to have a great season while playing on that 1-yr contract in ATL. So, them betting on themselves worked.

Donaldson turned that into a 4-yr/$92M or a 5-yr/$100M contract w/ Minnesota for his age 34-37 or 34-38 seasons. By all accounts the Braves were in the running w/ a late arriving $4-yr/$85M-ish offer, but the potential for the 5th year & the additional $M's that Minnesota offered, plus the potential fact that the Braves' best & final offer wasn't presented / received by the date requested by JD's representation, resulted in JD leaving ATL after just one season.

So, now the Braves find themselves in a somewhat similar situation w/ Ozuna after his great 2020 season w/ some differences:

  • Ozuna's almost 4 years younger
  • Ozuna has fewer injury question marks (although his arm is very much a noodle after shoulder issues)
  • Ozuna's career track record isn't as decorated
  • Ozuna (LF/DH) plays a much less important defensive position & due primarily to his weak arm he doesn't play it very well.
What I wanted to do now was to compare their MLB Percentile Ranks for their offensive seasons in ATL:
  • EV - Ozuna was in the 96th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 97th - I consider this very much a push, because despite Donaldson being in the higher percentile, Ozuna's EV was actually 0.1 higher than Donaldson's (MLB batters overall must have had a higher EV in 2020 than they did 2019)
  • Hard Hit% - Ozuna was in the 97th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 98th - again, I consider this very much a push, but one could easily argue that a slight edge should go to Ozuna because his 54.4% was nearly 4 full percentage point higher than Donaldson's 50.5% (MLB batters overall must have hit the ball harder in 2020 than they did 2019)
  • xwOBA - Ozuna was in the 99th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 92nd - this one is a clear advantage for Ozuna
  • xBA - Ozuna was in the 97th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 62nd - this one is a huge advantage for Ozuna, but this is probably the stat that I care about the least
  • xSLG - Ozuna was in the 98th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 88th - this one is a clear advantage for Ozuna
  • Barrel % - Ozuna was in the 94th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 96th - I consider this to be another push
  • K % - Ozuna was in the 48th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 35th - this one is a clear advantage for Ozuna, but we're only talking about 1 percentage point difference (22.5% vs. 23.5%)
  • BB % - Ozuna was in the 88th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 96th - this is only one that is clear advantage for Donaldson, but again we're only talking about 1 percentage point difference (14.2% vs. 15.2%)
  • Whiff % - Ozuna was in the 21st percentile, while Donaldson was in the 16th - this one is misleading, because I actually give the slight edge to Donaldson w/ his 29.9% compared to Ozuna's 31.4% (MLB batters overall must have whiffed more in 2020 than they did 2019)
  • Sprint Speed - Ozuna was in the 58th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 28th - this one is a huge advantage for Ozuna, but this is another stat that I don't care too much about from a slugger
When seeing all of this, then from an offensive standpoint peak Ozuna seems just as good as peak Donaldson, but Ozuna has age, fewer injury question marks, & the benefit of having more potential DH years in his upcoming contract all on his side. The only thing on Donaldson's side was his ability to play good defense at a more important defensive position.

If AA was willing to go 4 years (age 34-37 seasons) for Donaldson while expecting that no more than 2 of those seasons could have been DH filled seasons, then it seems entirely reasonable to me for AA to be willing to go 4 or 5 years (age 30-33 or 34 seasons) for Ozuna while expecting that in no more than 1 of those would Ozuna be asked to man LF on a regular basis. Additionally AA signed Ozuna for the 2020 season while expecting that Ozuna would have generally been the everyday LF'er. So, why not pass that down the line for just 1 more season & if things work out such that the NL has the DH in 2021, then that's a welcome bonus?

I've laid all of this out there to come to the conclusion that I think the Braves are in a better position to get Ozuna on a 4 or maybe (if push comes to shove) a 5 year deal than they were to get Donaldson on a similar length deal one year earlier. It feels like the Braves are further into their competitive window w/ more $ coming off the books (Hamels, Melancon, Folty, & Greene) & the inevitability of the universal DH is at least one year closer & Ozuna's so much younger such that all of this added together makes Ozuna more appealing & more realistic, in my book.

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