As we all know, in back to back seasons AA brought in a powerful RHH on a 1-yr, bet on himself contract to bat either ahead of or just behind the 2020 MVP Freddie Freeman. Both players went on to have a great season while playing on that 1-yr contract in ATL. So, them betting on themselves worked.
Donaldson turned that into a 4-yr/$92M or a 5-yr/$100M contract w/ Minnesota for his age 34-37 or 34-38 seasons. By all accounts the Braves were in the running w/ a late arriving $4-yr/$85M-ish offer, but the potential for the 5th year & the additional $M's that Minnesota offered, plus the potential fact that the Braves' best & final offer wasn't presented / received by the date requested by JD's representation, resulted in JD leaving ATL after just one season.
So, now the Braves find themselves in a somewhat similar situation w/ Ozuna after his great 2020 season w/ some differences:
- Ozuna's almost 4 years younger
- Ozuna has fewer injury question marks (although his arm is very much a noodle after shoulder issues)
- Ozuna's career track record isn't as decorated
- Ozuna (LF/DH) plays a much less important defensive position & due primarily to his weak arm he doesn't play it very well.
- EV - Ozuna was in the 96th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 97th - I consider this very much a push, because despite Donaldson being in the higher percentile, Ozuna's EV was actually 0.1 higher than Donaldson's (MLB batters overall must have had a higher EV in 2020 than they did 2019)
- Hard Hit% - Ozuna was in the 97th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 98th - again, I consider this very much a push, but one could easily argue that a slight edge should go to Ozuna because his 54.4% was nearly 4 full percentage point higher than Donaldson's 50.5% (MLB batters overall must have hit the ball harder in 2020 than they did 2019)
- xwOBA - Ozuna was in the 99th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 92nd - this one is a clear advantage for Ozuna
- xBA - Ozuna was in the 97th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 62nd - this one is a huge advantage for Ozuna, but this is probably the stat that I care about the least
- xSLG - Ozuna was in the 98th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 88th - this one is a clear advantage for Ozuna
- Barrel % - Ozuna was in the 94th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 96th - I consider this to be another push
- K % - Ozuna was in the 48th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 35th - this one is a clear advantage for Ozuna, but we're only talking about 1 percentage point difference (22.5% vs. 23.5%)
- BB % - Ozuna was in the 88th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 96th - this is only one that is clear advantage for Donaldson, but again we're only talking about 1 percentage point difference (14.2% vs. 15.2%)
- Whiff % - Ozuna was in the 21st percentile, while Donaldson was in the 16th - this one is misleading, because I actually give the slight edge to Donaldson w/ his 29.9% compared to Ozuna's 31.4% (MLB batters overall must have whiffed more in 2020 than they did 2019)
- Sprint Speed - Ozuna was in the 58th percentile, while Donaldson was in the 28th - this one is a huge advantage for Ozuna, but this is another stat that I don't care too much about from a slugger