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Mookie Betts to Atlanta? - At least one national BBWAA writer thinks so...

Since it's a slow time for baseball, I decided to revisit a CBSSports article from Feb 5, 2020 that examines Mookie Betts' looming free agency and ranks all 30 teams by most likely landing spot for Mookie. Want to guess who is #1??????

YUP: the Dodgers. But the Braves came in at #2.

I agree the Dodgers are the favorites. But before we automatically assume Mookie to the Dodgers is a foregone conclusion, hear me out.

There are four reasons why I think it is worth even considering the possibility he ends up in Atlanta:

1) Mookie said his unwillingness to extend with Boston was about not wanting to "... sell myself short of my value." It is possible the Dodgers meet his demands without hitting free agency, but if Mookie knows what the Dodgers' initial offer is, what does he really have to lose by hitting FA? He wants to try free agency.

2) While the Dodgers have the most money available to resign him, and they aren't afraid to spend big, they are also a very well-run front office. Even the Dodgers will reach a point that they will say "at that price, no thanks." It is irrelevant that the Dodgers COULD offer more than the Braves...they simply won't go beyond a number they determine is absolute. The Braves may just have to match. And the Dodgers have one major reason not to overextend themselves: they aren't desperate for him. Sure, they want him to be the piece that puts them over the top to FINALLY win the World Series, but they already know they have the best team in the NL even without him. If they don't get him, that just means they still have a top 3 team in the NL AND a billion dollars to spend elsewhere.

3) If money is basically the same between two competing offers, then what other variable could prove the X Factor? Sure, the LA weather and lifestyle can't be discounted. But Mookie is from Tennessee. I wouldn't suggest for a second that he would take a "hometown discount". BUT...if the Braves are willing to match what the Dodgers offer... could living closer to Mama's cooking be a determining factor?

4) Despite the running jokes about financial flexibility, and shopping in any aisle (or isle as the jokes have it), there has been a steady flow of hints that The Braves are willing to go big for Alex Anthopoulos to land the right guy. And with Alex intentionally not committing money the past two off seasons in deals running past 2020, there seems to be this feeling in the air that Alex is just waiting for the moment to go big on that one piece. It is conceivable Mookie is a guy Alex could splurge for.

So let's look at this claim and see how deep the well goes.

First, let's discuss the source. Mike Axisa has been with CBSSports since 2013, but worked for a number of other sites, including Fangraphs from 2011-2013, and has been a member of the BBWAA since 2015. His years at Fangraphs before presumably getting poached to "the big time" doesn't necessarily give this current article any credence, but I think a Fangraphs writer is more than a clickbait type of guy.

Here is what Axisa says about the Braves:

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COULD the Braves pay Mookie?

Rumors have it Boston offered a 10-year, $300M offer following the 2018 season. Mookie reportedly countered with a 12-year, $420M offer. And as NBCSports puts it,

"The 12-year, $420 offer Betts reportedly seeks is in line with recent major league megadeals: Slightly south of Mike Trout's 12-year, $430 million behemoth but north of Bryce Harper's 13-year, $330 million deal."

Assuming he asked for a 12-year deal after 2018, I don't think he will expect anything less than a 10-year deal after 2020. And staying just under Trout's 430/12 deal, and above Harper's 330/13 seems an expected demand. This also aligns with the ages of the players (Mookie and Harper are both currently 27 with their 28th birthdays only a few days apart in October), and Trout is a year older (he turns 29 in August 2020). A 10 year deal starting in 2021 (age 28) pays him through his age 37 season. A 12-year deal runs through his age 39 season.

Staying south of Trout, Betts should anticipate something in the ballpark of 400-420 over 10-12 years... possibly as high as $45-50M/yr upfront and structured to tail off in the back-end years.

For example, here is one hypothetically "reasonable", $410/10yr option:

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And here is a record-breaking, maximum contract of 12 years and $435M:

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However it is structured, could the Braves afford a $400M+ contract with a possible peak of $50M/year in 2021 and beyond?

Let's look at Atlanta's current financial standing:

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With Ozuna's contract expiring after 2020, both his spot in the OF and his $18M financial commitment open up. Removing Cole Hamels, Melancon, and Ozuna gives Atlanta a comfortable $50M in available cash to pursue Mookie while still leaving other funds (like $6.25M from Shane Greene, $4M from Nick Markakis, or, gasp, another budget increase) available for smaller holes.

So yes; the Braves could afford Mookie's contract even if it peaked with upfront commitments at $50M/year.

And if $50M per season isn't enough to get Mookie, then I think he will look good playing in Dodger Blue, don't you?

SHOULD the Braves pay Mookie?

This could be looked at from two view points: 1) Is Mookie, individually, worth a $400M+ contract? and 2) Is that type of a commitment to one player worth it to the Braves as a whole?

Let's start with question #1:

For those who think that NOBODY is worth $400M, which is fine, then go ahead and skip to the comments section (if you are even reading this).

In relative terms to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper money, Mookie is worth it.

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In the past four seasons, Mookie has been nearly as good (fWAR) as Mike Trout and essentially TWICE as good as Bryce Harper! So a contract just south of Trout seems reasonable. As a side note...over the past five years, Trout is almost 100 Offensive points(!) better than Mookie, who is #2 in all of baseball! Trout is something else.

In terms of $/WAR, it gets more tricky. The industry standard for $/WAR is $9M. Mike Trout's record extension pays him $430/12, or $35.8M/yr. At $9M/WAR, Trout only needs to be worth 47 WAR, or 4 WAR/yr to be worth his contract (not accounting for inflation). Assuming the $/WAR will continue to climb each year, the production at the end of the contract paid in today's dollars offers a sort of savings for the Angels. So for Mookie, if he gets a similar $420/12 year contract, he will need to produce 47 cumulative WAR, or about 3.9 WAR/yr to break even (again, without adjusting for inflation).

Can Mookie be worth 47 cumulative WAR?

Here is how Mookie earned his value:

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You can see his 2018 season (10.4 fWAR) had both excellent offense (69.2 points above league average) and really good defense (11.6 above league average). His 2019 season took a significant hit to both (37.0 and 6.3 respectively) for a total of 6.6 WAR. Now, 6.6 WAR is still elite, but let's look a little deeper at both offense and defense individually:

Here is Mookie's wRC+ since he entered the league, displayed by his age:

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If you are not familiar with the research into aging curves, I recommend you read this from Jeff Zimmerman.

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It's oversimplifying a bit, but players can expect their prime to start to drop in wRC+ after their age 26 season. They continue to drop about 5 points of wRC+ through age 34, and then drop at a rate of about 10 wRC+ per season through age 38. From 38 through 40, players drop about 15 points per season. A quick note on wRC+: it measures the entire offensive contribution of a player adjusts for the effect of varying stadiums, and scales it to a league average of 100. So a 150 wRC+ means the player produced 50% more runs than the league average.

Perhaps you are thinking what I first thought: this is a curve for the 'average' players, surely a phenom like Mookie is an outlier, right? Well, you're in luck, because Henry Druschel did some work on this for Beyondtheboxscore:

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This study defined a "phenom" as anyone who accumulated 8 or more bWAR through their 21 and 22 year old seasons. Since Mookie meets that criteria, we will use it to project out what his production could be should he continue to follow that curve. We see that the phenoms delayed their decline until after 28, and that their decline continued at a more gradual rate than their non-phenom peers. There is some issue with data sample size (there just aren't as many phenoms!), but the spikes in the curves really aren't too pronounced, suggesting that a larger data set might not alter the overall center-line significantly. The exact rate may adjust slightly with more samples, but the general trend is clear: phenoms don't decline as early, and they don't decline as rapidly as the average player.

Coincidentally, phenoms tended to peak at 25, have a dip in production in their age 26 season, and then returned to their peaks by 28; Mookie's 10.4 fWAR peak came at age 25, and dipped in 2019 (age 26). I think this is more a random result of small sample size than anything too predictive, but it might be useful in justifying a "return to form" of sorts for Mooking in 2021 (age 28 season) before his inevitable decline.

This is what a projected wRC+ age curve for Mookie might look like:

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The age 21-26 seasons are historical, not projections. I skipped his 2020 season for obvious reasons. If he follows the normal age curve (blue), he will just continue to decline as a player from his age 25 peak. If he follows the trend identified by other phenoms (orange), we could expect to see him return to peak by age 28 and begin a gradual decline. If we assume that his 2018 season was just a bit beyond reasonable to repeat, and give a more conservative "bump" back up to around 150 wRC+, we can project a more central (gray) age curve. However, not having 2020 to use is really critical in how reliable this projection could be. I doubt any team will feel comfortable using the "phenom" curve, and I don't think Team Mookie would agree to a contract based on the average curve. I think my central estimate is more likely to play out in contract negotiations.

Since we can see that Mookie may be merely a league average hitter by the age of 32 following a normal curve, you have to question how much defensive value he can bring after age 32 to help boost that declining bat? If he is making $35M/year and hitting around league average, you can see that by age 32 his contract might already start getting worrisome. If you accept that Mookie will follow the central estimate, he should continue to be an above average hitter until sometime after he turns 38. If you think we should stick to the true phenom curve, he could be an above average hitter past 40.

Repeating the same exercise using WAR/600, we come up with this:

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You'll probably notice that the central estimate for WAR is closer to the Normal estimate, when in our wRC+ the Central was pretty, well, centered. This is because I intentionally (subjectively) lowered the WAR/600 starting point to 6 WAR/600 instead of having a 7.9 WAR/600. My reasoning is that Mookie's 10.2 WAR/600 season was a drastic outlier. The next closest he had come to that was 6.8 in 2017. I felt a "central" estimate should start somewhere closer to a central point, so I looked at his previous four WAR/600 of 6.8, 4.5, 10.3, and 5.6 and felt starting at 6 was more realistic. Projecting his 2021 season to be back to 10 WAR just seemed too illogical, and this seemed a more reasonable combination of the two potential other outcomes.

A second main observation is that if we use the phenom curve on the wRC+ chart, Mookie likely becomes an average hitter around age 38. However, using the phenom curve on the WAR/600 chart he could still be a 6 WAR/600 player at age 38. I can't imagine a scenario this his speed and defense allow him to remain a 6 WAR/600 player at 38 if his hitting is average. This is why I feel the Central curve is probably more reliable (even if it has a subjective starting point), which doesn't project him becoming replacement level (2.0 WAR) until 38.

Since the gap between WAR/600 and wRC+ is so pronounced, with defense being the difference between the two, the question then becomes what should we make of his defense going forward:

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Mookie played 144 innings in CF in 2019, which clearly hurt his UZR/150. Since UZR/150 is simply UZR scaled for 150 games, it gives a comparable tool for UZR for an entire season. UZR is simply the combination of the four categories to the left (which measure arm, double plays, range, and errors with each being scaled to a league average). So Mookie's 12.6 URZ in 2019 means he was 12.6 runs above average. Over the course of 150 games he was worth 13.3 runs above average. It should be noted that he was worth about 20 runs above average from 2016-2018 and took about a 7 run drop from that average in 2019. 2019 could be an outlier, but without a full 2020 season to prove otherwise, it should at least raise an orange flag that his defense already may be declining at a concerning rate. But otherwise, Mookie has proven a very good defensive right fielder and could project well playing a corner outfield spot for the remainder of his career should he need to be pushed off of center field. With Atlanta having Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, Christian Pache, and Drew Waters available, Mookie could move from center to a corner spot immediately.

What about WAR projections going forward?

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Here we see ZiPS has Mookie projected to be around 5.8 WAR in 2021 and then drops by 0.2 WAR. I point this out because this also matches the rate derived from the WAR/600 chart above, though the numbers obviously vary due to being scaled to 600 PA. In short, ZiPS agrees with the same age-curve used above.

Let's put this all together now. If we use the three aging curves outlined, one could project the following cumulative WAR totals for Mookie:

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The totals at the bottom of 31.9, 96.5, and 45 are the sums starting at age 28 and running through age 40. Let's agree to just throw out the phenom expectation of him being a 4 WAR player at age 40. However, if we accept the Normal aging curve as a "low" estimate and the Central curve as a "most likely" outcome, we can safely project 32-45 cumulative WAR over the course of the contract through age 40 (13 seasons). But there is still a fair chance Mookie is closer to the Phenom than the Central curve, suggesting a 45 WAR projection could be lower, or considerably lower, than what he actually produces. It simply serves as a good central estimate.

If we remember the $9/WAR formula we used above, we concluded that Mookie would need to amass about 47 WAR to justify a $420M contract over 12 years, which is surprisingly close to the central projection of 45 WAR/600 estimate over 12 years. If we just consider the time-changing value of the dollar and the expected rise in $/WAR over time, then $420 might actually be a slight bargain for the 45 WAR/600.

As an aside, if Mookie proves to be a demi-god and amasses another 96.5 WAR, that will give him a career total of 133 WAR, which is good for 7th all time among position players, right behind Hank Aaron. So I guess it is still a possible outcome, but not one I would bet $420M on.

If we take the disparity between the central curves from the wRC+ and the WAR/600 charts, believing that the wRC+ is more applicable because of Mookie's tool set than the WAR/600, then the $420M contract is a little steeper in price.

So to finally answer the question: SHOULD the Braves pay Mookie? Or to ask a better question: at what price point should Mookie no longer be signed to a contract?

In a vacuum, I would say that the previously presented contract of $410 over 10 years suddenly doesn't seem unreasonable at all.

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The total WAR of 42 matches with $410M for a collective $9.76/WAR figure. Even the last few years of the contract are within a reasonable price range for a 2-3 WAR player, which is important in avoiding "dead money" contracts. Again, if we reasonably assume that the $/WAR continues to increase over time, then this actually becomes a pretty good deal. In fact, the valuation seems near perfect.

But team's can't make player acquisition decisions in a vacuum void of team context...

Now to question #2: Is that type of a commitment to one player worth it to the Braves?

Putting that much money into one player is extremely risky. But a player of Mookie's caliber has high reward potential. Perhaps the Braves are uniquely positioned in a way to take that risk.

First, there aren't any many position holes that need to be filled. Assuming Freeman is sincere that he wants to retire a Brave, it is very easy to predict 1B is secured for the near (and far) future. Ozzie Albies is locked in on one of the most team friendly contracts in MLB. Likewise, though not on guaranteed contracts, the young and cheap talents at 3B (Riley and Camargo) and SS (Dansby Swanson) give a very solid left side of the infield making very little money for a few more years of team control. While Tyler Flowers is a free agent after 2020, Travis d'Arnaud is a passable 1.5 fWAR player on the heavy side of a time share and signed through 2021. So if the Braves keep Travis the starter in 2021, they only need to find a defensive backup catcher. Ozuna's pending FA departure after 2020 opens a hole in the the outfield. Atlanta has Acuna on a long-term deal and Ender Inciarte under contract for a few more years with Adam Duvall arbitration eligible through 2022. While the Braves COULD rely on those three as the everyday starters, replacing Ozuna and keeping Duvall a 4th OF option seems the obvious preference.

Second, the Braves have assembled a very cheap, solid rotation. With Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Mike Foltynewicz, and Sean Newcomb all experienced and capable starters, and Top 100 prospects Kyle Wright (who also looked really good in spring training) and Ian Anderson appearing MLB ready, the Braves won't likely need to replace Cole Hamels with an expensive front or even middle of the rotation option. While adding a true Ace certainly would be nice, the Braves could field a competitive 2021 (really a 2020) rotation without adding a single pitcher on a long-term contract.

Third, reinforcements are on the way. While no prospect is a guarantee, the talent in the pipeline lines up very nicely for the Braves. The obvious hole for 2021 is in the OF with Ozuna's departure. With Christian Pache and Drew Waters consensus Top 100 prospects and close to being ready, they slide in nicely as replacements or upgrades to Enter Inciarte and Adam Duvall. However, neither is the power hitter that Ozuna is, and his position in the lineup should still be filled from external options. The next biggest hole for 2021 is backup catcher, and the Braves have highly rated catching options in Top 100 prospect Shea Langeliers, William Contreras, and Alex Jackson. While questions remain about Alex Jackson's future as an everyday player, he projects to be a very good backup catcher and should be capable of filling in by 2021 as a backup to d'Arnaud, assuming Contreras or Langeliers aren't ready by then. With Shea Langeliers being a college bat, a Top 10 catching prospect in all of MLB, and already aged 22, there is some chance he could be ready to be a starting catcher as early as 2022, though 2023 is more likely. Further, with several quality internal pitching options (Tucker Davidson, Bryce Wilson, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Muller, Patrick Weigel, etc.) behind Wright and Anderson, and the plethora of veteran inning eaters available for one-year deals off the scrap heap, the Braves shouldn't need to commit big money to any long term pitchers in the near future. They also have a lot of interesting arms to fill out a decent to good bullpen without committing additional expenses.

In summary, the Braves have lots of available money and there might not be many holes to fill. The few holes they do have are in the OF, C, and possibly the rotation, and they have multiple Top 100 prospects in the minors for each of the three positions in need. While adding a top of the rotation arm is also a reasonable use of the money, the Braves don't NEED to spend that available $50M in pitching. And while they don't NEED to add another outfielder, the OF is an obvious spot to add an impact bat that the Braves probably shouldn't expect Waters or Pache to fill. Mookie Betts is the best young, impact OF player available. And did we mention he is from Tennessee?

So assuming the Braves land Betts, what would the payroll look like moving forward without any other trades (other than extending Freeman at his current contract rate)?

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The Braves would still need to pay arbitration salaries, but with adding Mookie in 2021 at $50M, the Braves would have a committed total of $117,559,000 in salary. Assuming they keep the 2021 payroll at 2020's record-high $147M, they still have $30M available to pay the remaining salaries without even having to make trades (though Ender and Chris Martin could be moved to free up another $15M). That's a potential of $45M available.

And that is assuming $148M is the cap. Not only could there be room for even higher spending, there likely is room. Look at this statement from Alex Anthopoulos right after signing Ozuna and missing out on Josh Donaldson:

"There was a time, right when Donaldson was about to come off the board 
and sign, that we for about an hour or so talked about what if we got 
both," Anthopoulos said in a Q&A with fans. "And I’m not trying to 
do a tease. But we wanted to be creative and said that four and five 
(spots) would be really nuts. So, we are always open-minded to doing 
things. And we are always going to try and be creative and always going 
to continue to add." 

Back in February of 2020, the Braves thought their final offer to Josh Donaldson might have landed both him AND Ozuna. Donaldson never said how much the Braves had offered, but his comments did include that the Twins' offer "wasn't in the same realm...financially", but they offered the four year deal, which was the determining factor. I don't know what this means, exactly, but it sounds safe to assume the Braves offered a fairly competitive per annual offer in dollar terms, but Josh wanted the extra year(s) offered by the Twins. If that is the case, it is reasonable to think the Braves offered more than the $25M/yr that the Twins offered.

So, the Braves were planning to spend potentially $25M above their current record payroll of $148M.

That's $173M.

Alex further stated (in the same February Q&A after signing Ozuna and missing out on Donaldson):

"I can tell you. I was talking to Terry McGuirk the other day. And 
obviously, we’ve done a lot so far this winter. Very supportive. He just
 told me the other day… he’s like, ‘Look, I want you to continue. If 
there is something else that you think is big and impactful and can 
continue to drive us forward and put us over the top, I want you to go 
for it. I want you to try and do it.’ I’m like, ‘Wow. I can just keep 
going and going?’ He’s like, ‘Yeah.’ It was exciting to hear."

"I told him (McGuirk) this at the time," Anthopoulos continued. "I said, look, in the two years we’ve worked together, I have not had a time when I brought him something, from a baseball standpoint, that I felt this was a great day, we really love this, and he’s told me no. Not once."

I think a top five player in all of baseball, who happens to play the position of biggest need, constitutes "big and impactful and can continue to drive us forward and put us over the top."

This comment from McGuirk to Alex shouldn't be taken as mere small talk in passing. Liberty Media gave a financial release in February 2020 and revealed that Braves generated $150M in profit between 2018 and 2019. Not revenue, profit. They generated $404M and $438M in revenue, respectively. Despite a $74M rise in 2019 operating costs over 2018, the Braves still managed to generate $54M in profit. Citing increased attendance, property revenue from The Battery, and even an apparent increase in the medial deal, the Braves moved from a revenue sharing recipient to a payee for the first time in 2019. The cash is there.

And one last nugget: Alex Anthopoulos signed a 3-year extension with the Braves on February 17, 2020 that runs through 2024. Think that over for a second... his contract wasn't set to expire until 2021, but a year early the Braves extended him another three years. And they did that in February, the same time that Liberty Media announced $150M in profit over the prior two years. The same month that McGuirk told Alex basically "if you wanna buy something, go for it!". The same month the Braves made plans to spend around $170M in payroll (before Josh signed elsewhere). And if there was ever a time for a GM to feel bold enough with his job security to make a big splash, it would be right after getting an early three year contract extension and a "go shopping!" pep talk.

In short, the Braves were both able AND willing to spend significantly more in 2020 than the already record high Opening Day budget of $148M. If we take $170M as the potential ceiling, then signing Mookie Betts at $50M for will still gives the Braves another $50M left to spend in 2021 (Lindor?!).

Conclusion:

Mookie Betts has indicated he does not plan to accept a contract extension and instead will test his worth in free agency. His production suggests a contract just shy of Mike Trout's contract, so possibly in the ballpark of $400-420M over 10-12 years. Aging curves suggest he is probably worth that contract, assuming no major injury of course. The Braves are uniquely positioned with a core of young talent on cheap contract with a strong farm system aligned to fill potential holes internally. As such, the primary place that really needs an upgrade is a corner outfield position. And although the Braves have historically been a mid-market payroll team, their financial situation has taken major steps forward the past two years and they are experiencing record-breaking revenue and profits. With these profits, the Braves were willing to spend approximately $170M on 2020's payroll before Donaldson's offer was rejected. With all of this financial flexibility they have teased about the past few years, Alex has been told not only that he can go get an impact piece that he wants, in fact, his boss said "I want you to."

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