MLB Standings: Braves have 2.5 game lead entering the final homestand

The Atlanta Braves successfully wrapped up a 10-day road trip with a 4-3 win Sunday against the San Diego Padres. The Braves have won three straight games and completed a 7-4 trip western road trip. Atlanta began their stay in San Diego with a 6-5 loss in the suspended game that was originally scheduled for late July at Truist Park. They went on to sweep the next three games highlighted by a complete game shutout by Max Fried along with two hard fought contests. Atlanta overcame deficits of 3-0 and 7-3 to win 10-8 on Saturday. They held on for a 4-3 victory Sunday as Will Smith worked out of a bases loaded jam in the ninth.

Atlanta will return home for the final homestand of the 2021 season with a 2.5 game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. Their magic number to clinch the NL East is five.

National League East

Braves 83-72 (.535), —
Phillies 81-75 (.519), 2.5 GB
Mets 73-82 (.471), 10.0 GB

The Phillies had a good week as well but failed to make up any ground in the division. They have won seven of ten overall but saw a five-game winning streak snapped Sunday with a 6-0 loss to the Pirates. Philadelphia will close out their season on the road in Atlanta and Miami. The Mets were eliminated from postseason contention earlier this week and suffered their fifth straight loss Sunday. They have lost 10 of 11 and will finish the season with a losing record despite being 11 games over .500 on June 16.

Playoff Odds

Atlanta’s win combined with Philadelphia’s loss Sunday gave the Braves a big boost in FanGraphs updated playoff odds. Atlanta is now at 87% to win the division with the Phillies chances dipping to just 13% with six games to play. With their magic number at five, Atlanta can clinch the NL East with a sweep of the Phillies. A series win would put Philadelphia’s hopes on life support as they would need to sweep Miami and have the Braves lose all three games against the Mets and to the Rockies on Monday just to force a game No. 163. At minimum, Atlanta needs to avoid a sweep to remain in the driver’s seat.

Win Division
Braves: 87.0%
Phillies: 13.0%
Mets: 0.0%

Make Playoffs
Braves: 87.1%
Phillies: 13.0%
Mets: 0.0%

NL Wild Card

Dodgers 100-56 (.641), — (Clinched spot in postseason)
Cardinals 87-69 (.558), —
Phillies 81-75 (.516) 6.0 GB
Reds 81-75 (.516), 6.0 GB
Padres 78-78 (.500) 9.0, GB
Mets 73-82 (.471), 13.5 GB

What was shaping up to be a thrilling end to the NL Wild Card race has gone by the wayside thanks to a 16-game winning streak by the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals will clinch the final wild card spot with another win or a loss by the Phillies and the Reds.