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NLCS open thread

Joe Musgrove vs. Ranger Suarez

Championship Series - Philadelphia Phillies v San Diego Padres - Game Two Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

With the NLCS knotted at a game apiece, it shifts to Philadelphia for three games. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the visiting Friars; Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies.

The good news is that teams that outhomer the opposition have won their last five playoff games, and haven’t lost a game (there have been some homer ties) since October 15. The overall record now sits at 16-5, a .762 winning percentage that’s reasonably in line with the overall expectation, if still well below where it was in an ordinately homer-blessing postseason last year.

This game is generally seen as a toss-up, with the Phillies just marginally favored around 51/49 or 52/48. Of course, 538 is always a little bit of a rebel, and has the Padres a bit favored at 51/49 instead, as it seems to like Musgrove way more than Suarez. For comparison, Suarez had an 89/95/96 line and is projected to be an above-average starter at this point; Musgrove clocks in at 76/90/87 for the season and has somewhat better projections. So I buy Musgrove > Suarez, but maybe not Musgrove > Suarez so much that it counteracts the entire home field advantage thing.

First pitch is at 7:37, because MLB and its broadcast partners are apparently edgelords and can’t just start stuff at 7:30 or whatever.

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