Well Sunday’s game was going great until it was going bad and then it was horrible, so here’s hoping that Atlanta’s first game of a three game series at the Brewers will get that bad taste out of our mouths. Ian Anderson will take the mound for Atlanta and he has been...fine this season. Ian has been fairly average and he has had less success with his fastball and curveball than last season. His Statcast profile generally outlines his overall averageness this season.
That Ian has lost about two MPH on his average fastball is likely part of the problem, but when both his strikeout and walk rates have moved about 25% in the wrong respective directions, it’s obviously very bad. With that being said, the actual run-prevention has generally been fine. Let’s hope that his actual pitching can improve, even just to return to his baseline from last year.
On the other side, Freddie Peralta will take the mound for Milwaukee. Peralta (4.40 ERA) has had similar run prevention outcomes to Anderson (4.20 ERA), but his peripherals are actually in the range of good to great, with a 3.40 xERA, 2.39 FIP, and 3.11 xFIP. Peralta’s Statcast profile also has much more red than Ian’s. Peralta throws his low-mid 90s fastball about 55% of the time and it is a pretty effective pitch, especially by the standards of fastballs, which hitters tend to have decent success against. The fastball has actually been Peralta’s most effective pitch according to xwOBA by a wide margin this season. He mixes in a slider, curveball, and changeup the rest of the time, none of which have been particularly effective this season by xwOBA, but were quite effective last season in a sample that was obviously much larger.
Offensively, Dansby Swanson continues to put together one of his hot streaks, as Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna have perhaps shown some signs of breaking out of their slumps. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies have continued to struggle. Ronald Acuna could potentially return to the lineup today after missing the last four games with a groin injury, and that would obviously be a huge help to the Atlanta offense. Regardless, the Braves need to get more than half of their offense fully functioning at the same time.
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, May 16, 2022
7:40 PM EDT
American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
TV: Bally Sports South
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Ch. 175