If you love pitching, this Braves-Brewers series has been a godsend. If you mostly just crave runs being put on the board, you’ve probably suffered. And if all you care about is that the Braves get a “W” instead of an “L” at the end of the day, well, the past two games have been just okay. After losing 1-0 on a ball that got past the catcher and allowed a run to score on Monday, and shutting out the Brewers 3-0 on Tuesday, the Braves will be back at it on Wednesday afternoon in Milwaukee, trying to beat the Brewers in a series for the second time this year.
That whole “very few runs” thing? It seems likely that it’ll keep up for another day, because this is a pretty stingy pitching matchup. The Braves will throw Max Fried, who comes into play 16th in MLB in starting pitcher fWAR and a 76/76/71 (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) line. The Brewers will counter with Corbin Burnes, 21st in MLB in starting pitcher fWAR and the owner of a 44/78/64 line. Batters beware. This is actually the second time in a couple of weeks these two marquee arms will face off against one another, as they did so two Saturdays ago in Atlanta. Burnes went six with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, with his main blemish a solo homer by Ronald Acuña Jr. (The Braves scored a second run after an outfield error turned a single into a triple, and Ozzie Albies knocked the runner in.) Fried went seven with an 8/1 K/BB ratio, allowing just a solo homer to Hunter Renfroe in terms of runs, and the Braves went on to a 3-2 win. Something like that seems pretty plausible as a result for this game.
The Braves have struggled to get anything going this season for myriad reasons, and haven’t won three games in a row all year. They’re currently in fourth place in the division, and the effects of each loss on their playoff odds are starting to pile up. To wit: they lost around three percent after falling to the Brewers on Monday, but gained back less than a percent after last night’s win. They’ve got a lot of work to do to dig themselves out of a hole that is partially the result of poor performance and partially owing to factors way outside their control, and I guess they may as well start this afternoon, since it doesn’t look like things will get much better if they don’t.
Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, May 18, 2022
1:10 pm EDT
American Family Field
TV: Bally Sports South, MLB Network (out-of-market only)
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
XM Radio: Online/Ch. 175