It’s not a hangover, it’s a sequel and — at least for now — it’s a storyline stuck in the early acts of when the Braves were trying to find their footing and looking up at the Mets in the National League East standings.
Having dug themselves out of it on the way to a championship provides hope, but also a false sense that they can actually dig themselves out of it again.
Each step forward has been met with one back, and the likelihood of general manager Alex Anthopoulos pulling off another string of trade deadline coups — all of which stunningly work out — isn’t high and waiting for the Mets to implode isn’t exactly a strategy.
Sitting 7 1/2 games back, it’s been a frustrating start for the defending champions. Let’s dive into what’s wrong and what’s right for the Braves.
What’s Wrong
1. (Plate) discipline problems
No team has whiffed more than the Braves (370), making it no surprise that they also have the game’s worst contact rate (72.3 percent). But that’s only part of the story, because even when they do put the ball in play, they’ve had worse luck than Camp Crystal Lake’s counselors.
In the season’s first month, you could look at the fact that no one had a higher percentage of hard-hit balls (34.5) and fee like, eventually, things would even out. A team couldn’t keep making hard contact at that rate and continue to have the baseball gods frowning upon them, right?
Well, it hasn’t stopped. Atlanta is second in hard-hit rate in May (35.7 percent), leading the majors on the season at 35 percent with a .274 average on balls in play that ranks 24th.
From that end, nothing’s changed, along with the hope/potential that continuing to hit the ball hard is going to eventually break the Braves’ way. But it does all pose the question: is the real problem the lack of balls in play or the absence of luck when a ball is actually put in play?
The Braves have 897 batted ball events through Monday, which is 27th — only the Pirates, Cubs and Reds have fewer — but the Brewers (920) aren’t that much further ahead in 23rd in BBE, and are top five runs (179) to the Braves’ 155 (17th).
Milwaukee’s BABIP, which ranks 19th, is all of five points higher than Atlanta, and they’ve had their own issue with strikeouts, fanning 348 times (fourth overall).
The real difference? Milwaukee is swinging on less pitches outside the strike zone — posting the third-lowest rate at 28.8 percent, compared to the Braves at 34.2, which is seventh highest.
The Braves have three of the biggest culprits when it comes to swinging on outside pitches with Ozzie Albies (44 percent), Adam Duvall (38.5) and Marcell Ozuna (37.1) all within the top 30.
2. Lack of Ronald Acuña Jr.
This is the no-brainer, right? The Braves have one of the best players on the planet, and they’ve spent much of the season without him in the lineup. We’re not going to turn this into a diatribe about whether Ronald Acuña Jr. needs to change the way he plays. ... OK, maybe for a minute.
Even if he is coming off a torn ACL and a groin strain that caused him to miss five games, Acuña is right in saying “If I try to do anything different, it would just diminish the way I play.” We love when the passion is in the form of his pumping his chest and tossing his bat after a home run; we begrudge when it shows in aggressive base running. They say it’s when a player is being tentative that they get hurt. Acuña plays, like Brian Snitker said, “like his hair’s on fire,” and the outfielder’s all-or-nothing approach has its risks, but it’s the foundation of his talent. That’s not changing, especially with a team that clearly needs the kind of spark he can provide.
Tuesday’s win over the Brewers was a prime example, as Acuña showed no effects of the groin injury on an infield single in which he got down the line at 30.1 feet per second, or when he stole second in the eighth inning (his sixth in six tries).
That’s that dynamic impact that no one else in this lineup is capable of, that along with that day-in, day-out production. Among Braves with at least 50 plate appearances, no one has a higher wRC+ (140) or OPS (.828), and Acuña’s six steals lead the team and are among the top 11 in all of MLB ... and he’s played in 12 games.
Don’t begrudge the style of play, and like the Phillies with Bryce Harper and his torn UCL, be thankful this isn’t 2021 and the designated hitter is an option to keep Acuña in the lineup as he works his way back to playing in the field on an everyday basis.
3. Surprising troubles with the glove
The MLB leader in Outs Above Average as recently as this past weekend, Dansby Swanson has slipped into a tie for third, and Adam Duvall is one behind Swanson in a tie for 16th. They’re joined by one other player in Matt Olson, with one OOA, as the only Braves who are in the positive in that defensive metric.
As a team, Atlanta is 24th in defensive runs above average (minus-12.4) and collectively has three defensive runs saved (19th). They’ve also committed the ninth most fielding errors (13). During last year’s championship run, the Braves were eighth in DRS and 11th in Def and only two teams committed fewer fielding errors.
To this point, four everyday players have negative defensive WARs, including Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and, most surprisingly Olson — who has multiple Gold Gloves, and the best dWAR among first basemen since 2016. He has the worst defensive metrics of his career with minus-1 DRS and a minus-0.3 dWAR.
4. Not-so-timely hitting
Within the last seven games, the Braves have won on a walk-off home run (via Orlando Arcia), matched the Padres’ four-run eighth with one of their own, and got a two-run home run from Marcell Ozuna in the eighth Tuesday for two insurance runs.
Big moments, ... and they’re still 27th in OPS in high-leverage situations (.611), better than only the Red Sox (.604), Tigers (.546) and Orioles (.500), those moments primarily serving as outliers for this offense.
Opportunistic hitting continues to be one of Atlanta’s biggest issues, ranking 23rd with runners in scoring position (.645) and 20th in with runners on (.691). They’ve hit the fifth-most home runs (47), with only the Astros having hit more solo homers, and the Braves are 17th in runs scored (156) despite that power.
It’s been at its worst when it comes to the 2-5 hitters in the order, who are dead last in wRC+ with runners on (71) and with RISP (55). A year ago, the Braves were top eight in both categories from those spots in the lineup ... and speaking of the heart of the order.
5. Missing punch at DH
With National League pitchers ditching their bats, the Braves were among the teams that were primed to benefit most, but it hasn’t translated as that perceived strength.
Atlanta is 22nd in OPS at DH (.598), better than four NL teams (the Padres, Nationals, Marlins and Diamondbacks), and is 19th in wRC+ (95).
It hasn’t helped that they used the likes of Alex Dickerson (34 PAs and a .432 OPS) before Acuña’s return, with Marcell Ozuna getting more time in the field than expected. To Brian Snitker’s credit, Arcia has raked to the tune of an (.824 OPS in 23 PAs), and Acuña getting more reps as he works his way back to being in the field everyday figures to be a boost.
But the true key here is the player we expected to get the brunt of the at-bats, and there have been more highs than lows for Ozuna.
He did homer Wednesday vs. the Brewers as DH, his first of the season from that spot. But on the season, Ozuna is hitting 16 percent below league average with a .659 OPS. His 2021 season, marred with injury and off-field issues, was another below average season (73 wRC+) as he the lack of the DH in the NL meant he had to play in the field, but Ozuna has yet to recapture what he did during the pandemic shortened 2020 year, when he led the league in homers and RBI.
The Braves’ hope has to be his recent play — which has included a hit in six straight games, his longest such streak in more than a year — is a sign that Ozuna is headed for a rebound. It’s been a season of struggles, though, including a 6.5 increase in out of zone swings (32.3) that ranks as his highest of his career.
What’s Right
Kyle Wright, 95mph Fastball and 85mph Curveball, Individual Pitches + Overlay. pic.twitter.com/5OhqD1oU7Y
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 15, 2022
6. The starting staff
The Brewers got to Max Fried for three runs Wednesday, ending a streak of four straight games in which Atlanta starters allowed one run or less, which tied for the club’s longest such run since 2018. On the season, the rotation’s numbers don’t jump off the page, ranking 22nd in ERA (4.32) and 15th in fWAR (2.5), but that aforementioned streak underscores how strong that group has been of late.
Over the past two weeks, Atlanta’s starters have the ninth best ERA (3.39). Max Fried has a 2.70 ERA since his Opening Day issues, Ian Anderson’s last six outings have included a 2.70 ERA and after posting a 6.85 ERA in his first five starts, Charlie Morton has allowed one run over his last two. Key there has been a major increase in his swing-and-miss rate, which has been at 10.6 (Brewers) and 16.9 (Padres) the last two outings. Before that, he had gone over 7.7 percent once.
But those were expected to be the key pieces. What no one saw coming was Kyle Wright’s coming-out party, which continues with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.2 fWAR that ranks eight among all starters.
The fifth spot remains hit or miss, with Bryce Elder and Tucker Davidson having moments of success, and the potential return of Mike Soroka in the second half of the season could make this an especially dangerous group. But with Wright rolling, and that trio at the top finding their groove, an expected strength has become exactly that.
Web gem! #ForTheA | @LieutenantDans7 pic.twitter.com/3s46u39wvZ
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) May 18, 2022
7. Travis d’Arnaud and Dansby Swanson’s overall games
We mentioned Swanson’s defense, which has been exceptional, and it’s helped him to a 1.1 fWAR that is eighth among all shortstops.
It’s not all perfect. He’s hitting just below league average at 97 wRC+ and Swanson’s .697 OPS is 12th at the position. He’s also striking out. A lot. He’s fanned 51 times on the season, a total beaten by only the Cubs’ Patrick Wisdom (52) and he has the fourth-highest K rate (36.7) in the league.
Hitting .180 with a .532 OPS on April 26, Swanson has turned it on. He’s had an .836 OPS and .271 average since, smacking four home runs with three doubles. He’s still striking out, with 26 in that span, but since that aforementioned date, Swanson’s 135 wRC+ is top 50 among all players and fourth at his position.
D’Arnaud, meanwhile, has rebounded after a season cut short by injury and struggles when he was in the lineup.
Like Swanson, the catcher is still hitting below league average (95 wRC+), but that constitutes a 21 percent jump from last season. He’s still not hitting at the clip he did during his Silver Slugger 2020, but d’Arnaud is close in terms of his barrel rate (9.3) to that career high of 11.2 in the pandemic-shortened season.
The defense has been a welcome improvement, specifically his ability to control traffic on the base paths. D’Arnaud has already thrown out seven runners, two more than he did in 73 games last season, and his 4.5 Def is tied with the Cardinals’ Yadier Molina for third among all catchers.
A.J. Minter and William Contreras celebrate huge strikeout. pic.twitter.com/feM7PHVaha
— Baseball GIFs (@gifs_baseball) May 18, 2022
8. A bullpen stalwart and the new guy(s)
Granted, Kenley Jansen’s streak of 26 consecutive saves was snapped Wednesday in Milwaukee, but overall, his first month and a half in a Braves uniform have been stellar.
The offseason acquisition has converted nine saves, the right-hander’s strikeout rate is up 5.2 percent year over year to 36.1, the walk rate is down 6.3 percent and his Statcast page is heavy on the red. Jansen ranks in the 92nd percentile or higher in nine different categories, including hard-hit rate and nobody has a better xwOBA (.191).
Meanwhile, the Night Shift quartet that was so crucial in the World Series is down Luke Jackson to Tommy John surgery, a struggling Tyler Matzek (5.06 ERA) is on the injured list with shoulder discomfort and Will Smith’s last four outings include two blown saves and a 10.13 ERA.
A.J. Minter, though, has been lights-out. Only four qualified relievers can top his 40.3 strikeout rate — the Cardinals’ Ryan Helsley (54.8), the Mets’ Edwin Diaz (50.0) and the Brewers’ Josh Hader (43.8) and Devin Williams (42.9) — and he’s second in xBA (.135).
Batters have the highest average on Minter’s cutter (.294) in his career, but he’s been more four-seam heavy, throwing that pitch 47.1 percent of the time compared to 36.5 on the cutter and is using the changeup more (16.3 percent). That fastball has a .097 average against, his best ever, and no one has a hit against the changeup.
Those are elite numbers out of one of the best closers of this generation and a key piece in last year’s title run, and the bullpen is also getting some ridiculous production from a rookie Spencer Strider.
The system’s second-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline appeared in two games last season and didn’t strike anyone out. Through Wednesday, no one with more than 20 innings pitched has higher strikeout rate (40.0), with Strider fanning 32 in his 20 2⁄3 innings.
That trio is setting the pace in fWAR — Jansen is first (0.8), followed by Minter (0.7) and Strider (0.6) — on what has been the league’s second-best bullpen, with a collective 2.4 fWAR that trails only the Yankees (2.7).
9. Time is on their side
Without going down the road of thinking a team that put itself in a hole a year ago only to put it all together and win a championship can pull of a similar magic act, time is maybe the biggest thing on the Braves’ side.
At 17-21, they’ve played 23 percent of the season and their .447 winning percentage is nearly identical to where they were on this date in 2021. The difference is they’re 7 1/2 games back of the Mets compared to 4 1/2 a year ago.
That being said, Jacob deGrom has yet to throw a pitch this season, and isn’t likely back until July, Tylor Megill is on the IL with right biceps inflammation, and now comes another major blow with Max Scherzer missing 6-8 weeks with an oblique straing.
It’s not a forecast for another Mets downfall, but the division leaders aren’t exactly Teflon. They’ve weathered losing once ace, but two?
The Braves won’t have to deal with them until mid-July and the next 29 games don’t include a single series against a team with a winning record. Beginning Friday at Miami until a June 20 set with the Giants, that’s nine series vs. teams under .500.
There would seem no better time to start the climb back than with this upcoming chunk of the schedule.
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