Riding an 11-game winning streak, the Atlanta Braves will head out on the road for a six-game road trip that gets underway Monday evening in Washington. Atlanta improved to 34-27 Sunday afternoon with a 4-3 win over the Pirates. After a lackluster start to the season, the Braves appear to have found themselves, although the journey of self-discovery has come against a series of weak teams. Still, the difference between the Braves of April/May and the Braves of June is that the earlier iteration couldn’t string together sustained success no matter the opponent, but the current team is always doing enough to ensure a win even if certain players or tactics falter.
Atlanta trailed the Mets by 10.5 games on June 1, but has trimmed that down to just five games pending the outcome of New York’s game against the Angels Sunday.
The Nationals come into the series at 23-39, in last place in the NL East standings. They took two of three from the Braves at Truist Park back in early April and are 5-5 over their last 10 games. Juan Soto had four hits and a homer in that earlier series in Atlanta. He is hitting an uncharacteristic .228, but is getting on base at a .374 clip and has a 136 wRC+. Dig a little deeper and you will see that Soto is carrying a .279 xBA and his .415 xwOBA far outweighs his .368 wOBA.
Luis Garcia was at Triple-A during that earlier series, but has since returned to the majors and has taken over at shortstop while hitting .372/.378/.488 over his first 11 games. Maikel Franco had a big series at Truist Park back in April with eight hits, including a homer and drove in seven runs. Since that series, he is hitting .254/.279/.376 with four homers and an 80 wRC+.
Before Sunday’s game, the Nationals had the worst defense in MLB, which paired with their average roster to deliver a bottom-10 position player unit. The pitching has been fourth-worst in MLB, with MLB’s worst rotation and an average bullpen. The Nationals have used eight starters so far; none have an FIP below 4.55 or an xFIP below 4.33. By comparison, Charlie Morton’s FIP is barely above 4.55 and the only Braves starters with a worse mark are the now-banished Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Muller, and Bryce Elder. None of the Braves’ main starting five have an xFIP above 4.26.
Monday, June 13, 7:05 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Ian Anderson (11 GS, 59.2 IP, 19.6 K%, 10.2 BB%, 4.53 ERA, 4.51 FIP)
Ian Anderson will get the call for the Braves in Monday’s series opener and will be looking to build off of a good start in his last outing. Anderson held the Athletics to six hits and two runs over six innings in his last start. Prior to that, he had allowed 13 runs combined in his previous three starts. Surprisingly, Anderson has faced the Nationals just once in his career, where he allowed one hit, three walks and struck out nine over seven scoreless innings back in 2020.
Anderson’s 2022 season has been somewhat of a change for him, as he’s gone from harder contact with better peripherals in 2021 to weaker contact with worse peripherals so far this year. His pitch mix is pretty identical, but he’s had trouble with the consistency of his curveball and spotting the changeup right on the bottom edge of the zone, which has surprised batters but has elevated his walk rate.
Josiah Gray (12 GS, 62.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 10.9 BB%, 4.33 ERA, 5.43 FIP)
Right-hander Josiah Gray will get the start in the opener for Washington and will be looking to continue a solid June. Gray allowed two runs over six innings in Cincinnati on June 3 and then followed that up with a five-inning scoreless start against Miami last time out. He shut down the Braves back on April 13 allowing just one hit over five shutout innings.
Gray’s real issue seems to be that he’s inconsistent between imploding versus shutting down the other team. He has five starts (of 12) where both his FIP and xFIP are below 4.00, and another three where both are above 6.00. Take either group out and he looks either unplayable or really good, but in the end it’s added up to a replacement-level line so far given how badly he’s been crushed when he’s off.
Tuesday, June 14, 7:05 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (12 GS, 75.0 IP, 23.0 K%, 4.0 BB%, 2.64 ERA, 2.90 FIP)
Max Fried continued his impressive run in his last start, where he allowed eight hits, but just one run over six innings in a win over the Pirates. An 8/0 K/BB ratio helped the cause immensely. Fried has allowed a total of two runs combined over his last three starts (20 innings). He is also in the midst of a stretch where he has logged at least six innings pitched in 10 straight outings dating back to his third start of the season on April 19. Fried has faced the Nationals one other time this season, allowing seven hits and two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings.
Fried is currently eighth in MLB with 1.9 fWAR, and has a better xFIP than all but four of the guys ahead of him, too.
Stephen Strasburg (1 GS, 4.2 IP, 21.7 K%, 8.7 BB%, 13.50 ERA, 5.71 FIP)
Veteran righty Stephen Strasburg will make his second start of the season in Tuesday’s matchup. Strasburg had been on the Injured List while still working his way back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery that he underwent last July. His fastball velocity was noticeably down in his first start, where he allowed eight hits and seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings against the Marlins. Since signing a seven-year, $245 million contract extension, Strasburg has made just eight starts due to a variety of ailments and has a 6.89 ERA and a 5.69 FIP during that span. He has a 3.96 ERA in 36 career starts against Atlanta.
Wednesday, June 15, 7:05 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Spencer Strider (14 G, 3 GS, 38.1 IP, 36.8 K%, 12.3 BB%, 2.35 ERA, 1.99 FIP)
Spencer Strider will make his fourth straight start since joining the rotation in Wednesday’s series finale. Strider was impressive in his last start, allowing four hits and one walk over 5 2/3 innings to go along with eight strikeouts against the Pirates. Strider has a 1.83 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings on the road this season.
Erick Fedde (12 GS, 57.1 IP, 18.6 K%, 11.1 BB%, 4.87 ERA, 4.55 FIP)
Right-hander Erick Fedde will take his turn for the Nationals in the finale Wednesday. Fedde allowed four hits and three runs in 5 2/3 innings in his last start against Milwaukee. He has allowed a total of 13 runs over his last 11 1/3 innings encompassing three starts. The Braves have feasted on Fedde in his career, battering him for 50 hits, 38 runs and 10 home runs in 31 2/3 innings.
While Fedde’s offerings are mediocre, he did a fine job eating innings last year and is providing more of the same this year. He has a strange, sweeping curve that throws batters off, and an inconsistent sinker that doesn’t have the usual horizontal backup motion but mostly just dies. None of those things really portend great success, but give him enough of a floor that he can stumble his way into a decent start here and there with some regularity.
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