All eyes might be on the upcoming series with the Mets, but the Braves have to dispatch the Nationals first. Or, at least try to. Fun fact: tonight’s game with Charlie Morton facing Erick Fedde is the most the Braves have been favored in a single game all season. However, they actually lost the game-they-were-most-favored-in before this one, which also came against the Nats.
Other than watching for a win and averting your eyes in case of a loss, here’s some stuff to think about.
Hard-Hittin’ Austin Riley
Of the 12 balls he hit towards the field of play during the Cardinals series, Riley hit seven of them above 95 mph, which is the cutoff that Statcast uses for a “hard-hit” ball. A 58 percent hard-hit rate seems pretty cool, but it’s ho-hum for the Braves’ third baseman, who has a 56 percent hard-hit rate on the season.
It’s pretty wild that literally over half of the balls Riley hits and doesn’t foul off are hard-hit — only the top 20 (out of around 250 batters with the most batted balls so far in 2022) batters have been able to achieve even a 50 percent rate, and Riley’s 56 percent ranks fourth in MLB. (The top three? Usual suspects Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez are directly above Riley, but first is... J.D. Davis? What?)
What’s funny about this is that while Riley has indeed had gaudy exit velocity numbers, with his average 93.7 mph off the bat being a top-10 mark in MLB right now, he’s third on the team in both barrels per batted ball, and barrels per PA. Anyway, he’s elite in xwOBACON (an amazing .505) and xwOBA in general (.390), despite not-so-great K and BB rates. Austin Riley: he is great because he hits the ball really freakin’ hard. Yay.
The Nats, by the way, have allowed the greatest proportion of hard-hit balls in MLB, and the fifth-highest average exit velocity. They’re average-y at preventing barrels, and again, the exit velocity they’ve allowed probably isn’t really on their pitchers. But still, it should be a fun night for Riley, as hard-hitting meets hit-hard.
Return of the Morton Whiff
Mostly this is just an excuse to post this very silly chart:
In 2021, Morton posted a 29 percent whiff rate (whiffs divided by swings). Through the first two months of 2022, he managed a whiff rate nearly 50 percent lower, around 21 percent. And then, it skyrocketed up to above 37 percent in June, something he’s literally never managed (previous career high was around 34 percent). Note that that 37 percent includes his game against the Phillies in June, with a paltry 20 percent whiff rate again.
Swinging strike rate has a similar conclusion (whiffs divided by pitches thrown): 12.4 percent last year, 9.1 percent through May of this year, and then suddenly, up to 13.8 percent (including just 3.9 percent against the Phillies). Morton had just one four-start stretch where he exceeded a 12 percent whiff rate in all four starts last year, something he’s already matched this year in June, and can surpass if he strings together another set of high-whiff outings.
The Nationals don’t actually swing and miss that much, but neither do the Rockies, Reds, or, Pirates — of the teams he’s elevated his whiff rate against lately, only the Cubs had big swing-and-miss tendencies as it is. Anyway, come for Riley hitting the ball hard, stay for Morton whiffing everyone again, I guess. Or vice versa?
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