Disclaimer: This post was written with Spring Training stats through Saturday’s games. Make whatever mental adjustments you feel are warranted accordingly.
We previously did this exercise for hitters, so let’s do it for pitchers now. All the same caveats apply. Here’s another, very big caveat: the schedule was so packed with appearances and tryouts, and cramped by split squads and WBC warmups and the like, that nobody really got all that many innings. As a result, these results really don’t mean much. Anyway, let’s get right to it.
Non-spoiler alert: you probably could’ve guessed this witout this post. Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster exceeded expectations, and were aptly rewarded. Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson fell short of expectations (especially the dramatic fall from grace for Ian Anderson, courtesy of his shoulder injury or whatever else, woof) and were aptly... demoted. The other arms were mostly fine, Michael Soroka probably shouldn’t even be in this table with his four outs recorded, but here we are.
Unlike other stretches, Fried’s Spring Training seemed very focused on longer PAs and strikeouts this year. I don’t know if that has any bearing for the regular season, probably not. Spencer Strider was slightly the opposite, though some of that might be related to him not quite airing it out in March the way we know he can. Kyle Wright only had a few outings, and was mostly just throwing (not pitching), allowing a bunch of contact. It’s whatever. Charlie Morton’s March was a more extreme version of Fried’s, with fewer outings.
The important thing to keep in mind here is that projections-based expectations for Shuster and Dodd are mild, which made it easy for them to pitch way better than those in expectations in Spring Training. Shuster’s projections are consistent with a below-average, fourth starter. Dodd’s are more like a fill-in swingman/fifth starter. Suffice to say, both pitched way better than those projected roles.
I initially considered putting a relief table in here, but honestly, there’s no point. The relievers worked very few innings, and their projections don’t have much bearing on anything given how few innings each reliever will get, on average. So, this might be the shortest “analysis” post I’ve ever made. Fin.