It's time to rosterbate once again with the Deadline approaching. The Braves, as currently constructed don't have a lot of NEEDS, more so a couple areas where an improvement could be made.
As of right now to me, the likely sellers are Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals, Pirates, A's, Royals, White Sox, and the Tigers.
Teams who I think are too close to playoff contention right now to be likely sellers but could fall into that category with a couple bad weeks: Padres, Cubs, Mets, and Angels.
Position Players:
Position |
fWAR |
Positional Rank by fWAR; >250 PA |
wRC+ |
|
C |
Murphy |
3.9 |
1 |
163 |
1B |
Olson |
2.6 |
2 |
145 |
2B |
Albies |
2.3 |
6 |
118 |
3B |
Riley |
1.6 |
13 |
105 |
SS |
Arcia |
2.1 |
8 |
112 |
LF |
Rosario |
0.6 |
21 |
105 |
CF |
Harris |
1.5 |
15 |
99 |
RF |
Acuna |
4.8 |
1 |
163 |
DH |
Ozuna |
0.6 |
13 |
110 |
BN1 |
dAarud |
1.1 |
127 |
|
BN2 |
Hilliard |
0.5 |
101 |
|
BN3 |
Culberson |
0 |
N/A |
|
BN4 |
Pillar |
0.2 |
101 |
1. I see possibly adding a backup IF that is better than either Culberson or Shewmake for depth/insurance down the stretch. I don’t see them being willing to pay too much though since the backup IF likely won't play much.
I'm not sure who might be available for backup infielder that fits the bill of being good enough to replace Culby/Shewmake but not so good that they cost too much for someone who won't play unless an injury occurs? So I've got no targets at this time.
2. An OF that can take a roster spot of Hilliard/Pillar but be good enough to take some playing time away from Rosario (105 wRC+; .6 fWAR which is 21st in MLB for LF's) pushing him into more of a bench player.
Looking at OF's that have a better wRC+ (200+ PA) than Rosario and don’t have so much team control left to either make them completely unavailable or out of a price range for the Braves that I’m comfortable rosterbating about. The only one that is a clear enough upgrade over Rosario to me and therefore potentially worth making a trade for would be Bellinger.
Player - Team |
Team Control |
fWAR |
wRC+ |
Mark Cahna - NYM |
Rental |
0.6 |
110 |
Cody Bellinger - CHC |
Rental |
2.3 |
133 |
Ian Happ - CHC |
Rental |
1.5 |
112 |
I don't see position player being a focal area for improving the team as there's not likely a lot of meaningful improvement to be had. However, most of us wouldn't have considered improving on the C spot in the off-season either and AA did just that.
Pitching: I think the pitching side is likely the easier area to focus on, even as good as the Braves' rotation (13th in fWAR) and the Bullpen (2nd in fWAR) have been so far.
fWAR |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
FIP |
ERA |
fWAR |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
FIP |
ERA |
|||||
SP1 |
Strider |
3 |
14.27 |
2.92 |
2.84 |
3.44 |
BP1 |
Iglesias |
0.3 |
11.28 |
2.73 |
3.66 |
3.76 |
|
SP2 |
Elder |
1.4 |
6.79 |
2.89 |
4.13 |
2.97 |
BP2 |
Minter (L) |
1.0 |
11.16 |
2.23 |
2.83 |
4.91 |
|
SP3 |
Morton |
1.9 |
9.95 |
3.72 |
3.70 |
3.20 |
BP3 |
Jimenez |
0.2 |
10.57 |
2.64 |
3.60 |
2.93 |
|
SP4 |
Soroka |
-0.3 |
7.08 |
3.98 |
6.82 |
5.31 |
BP4 |
McHugh |
0.1 |
5.82 |
2.65 |
4.36 |
3.44 |
|
SP5 |
Allard |
0.3 |
10.13 |
2.53 |
2.97 |
2.79 |
BP5 |
Yates |
0.1 |
12.42 |
4.86 |
4.18 |
3.24 |
|
BP6 |
Tonkin |
0.3 |
7.57 |
2.05 |
3.82 |
2.66 |
||||||||
IL |
Fried |
0.6 |
8.65 |
2.08 |
3.05 |
2.08 |
BP7 |
Heller |
0.1 |
10.24 |
4.66 |
3.17 |
2.79 |
|
IL |
Wright |
0.2 |
9.64 |
4.82 |
4.46 |
4.09 |
BP8 |
Luetge (L) |
-0.1 |
9.28 |
5.06 |
5.62 |
9.28 |
|
AAA |
AJSS |
-0.3 |
8.1 |
3.24 |
7.39 |
5.02 |
||||||||
AAA |
Shuster |
0.3 |
5 |
4.4 |
4.85 |
5 |
IL |
Lee (L) |
0.2 |
10.19 |
3.06 |
3.50 |
3.57 |
|
AAA |
Dodd |
-0.5 |
4.44 |
2.96 |
7.67 |
7.4 |
IL |
N Anderson |
0.8 |
9.17 |
2.29 |
3.11 |
3.06 |
|
IL |
Chavez |
0.8 |
11.14 |
2.7 |
2.41 |
1.69 |
Rotation: Current rotation is below. Fried should be back by August or sooner, Wright... may be back(?). And the Braves also have a combination of AJ Smith-Shavver; Jared Shuster; and Dylan Dodd to provide rotation depth.
An addition here, is likely hinging on the expected health of Fried and Wright. At this point I’m not expecting anything this season out of Wright, though that’s pure speculation. Also, as they're not really needing an innings eater type starter due to the depth they have, a SP acquisition in my mind is someone that could be slotted in as the #3 starter in a playoff series. The players who may fit that bill might increase as the deadline approaches, but for now I'll focus on the teams I’ve listed as Current Sellers. Based on the state of the Braves’ farm system and rotation I don’t think they’ll be looking to meet the price for Keller or Cease. Rodriquez, Montgomery, or Giolito though could all be affordable and are players we should be comfortable slotting into our playoff rotation.
Of the May be Seller’s starters, due to trade costs I’d presume only Stroman or Snell would be realistic options if they became available.
Current Sellers |
||||||
Player - Team |
Team Control |
fWAR |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
FIP |
ERA |
Eduardo Rodriquez - DET |
.5 or 3.5 yrs |
1.80 |
9.51 |
2.11 |
3.26 |
2.70 |
Mitch Keller - PIT |
2.5 yrs |
2.40 |
9.92 |
2.62 |
3.35 |
3.31 |
Jordan Montgomery - STL |
Rental |
2.30 |
8.39 |
2.36 |
3.52 |
3.23 |
Dylan Cease - CHW |
2.5 yrs |
2.00 |
10.78 |
3.68 |
3.77 |
3.78 |
Lucas Giolito - CWS |
Rental |
1.70 |
9.37 |
2.72 |
4.20 |
3.45 |
May be Sellers |
||||||
Player - Team |
Team Control |
fWAR |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
FIP |
ERA |
Marcus Stroman - CHC |
Rental |
2.40 |
7.83 |
3.28 |
3.40 |
2.96 |
Joe Musgrove - SD |
4.5 yrs |
1.70 |
8.96 |
1.93 |
3.54 |
3.29 |
Blake Snell - SD |
Rental |
2.00 |
12.12 |
4.5 |
3.60 |
2.85 |
Reid Detmers - LAA |
4.5 yrs |
1.70 |
11.24 |
3.36 |
3.78 |
4.31 |
Patrick Sandoval - LAA |
3.5 yrs |
1.50 |
7.35 |
3.78 |
3.95 |
4.41 |
Bullpen: The bullpen has been one of the best in the game even if it's had its share of hiccups. You can never have too much pitching however, and we've seen multiple times how having a lock down bullpen can really be effective in the playoffs.
I don't like chasing saves at the deadline. That usually comes with a higher acquisition price and really doesn't tell me what I should expect from the player going forward. For me, I look for guys who can get strikeouts and hopefully limit walks. If that also comes in the form of a guy with saves, so be it. My preference was for relievers with 9.5+ K/9 and under 3 BB/9. However the relievers I found on potentially selling teams that fit that qualification mostly came with enough team control that it’s unlikely they’ll be available. So I took a look at some others that were outside my original scope but might be of interest due to likelihood of being available, K/9, or FIP.
9.5+ K/9 & <3 BB/9 |
||||||
Player - Team |
Team Control |
fWAR |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
FIP |
ERA |
David Bednar - PIT |
3.5 yrs |
1.6 |
10.70 |
1.78 |
1.86 |
1.27 |
Albert Alzolay - CHC |
3.5 yrs |
1.2 |
9.84 |
1.37 |
2.36 |
2.29 |
Carlos Hernandez - KC |
4.5 yrs |
0.5 |
9.80 |
2.63 |
3.01 |
3.82 |
Mark Leiter Jr - CHC |
4.5 yrs |
0.6 |
12.66 |
2.87 |
3.12 |
3.58 |
David Robertson - NYM |
Rental |
0.6 |
10.53 |
2.52 |
3.58 |
2.06 |
Hunter Harvey - WAS |
2.5 yrs |
0.7 |
10.07 |
2.75 |
3.68 |
3.20 |
Others of Interest |
||||||
Player - Team |
Team Control |
fWAR |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
FIP |
ERA |
Josh Hader - SDP |
Rental |
1.3 |
13.50 |
5.03 |
2.34 |
1.06 |
Chris Straton - STL |
Rental |
0.8 |
9.40 |
2.60 |
2.99 |
4.20 |
Jordan Hicks - STL |
Rental |
0.6 |
13.50 |
5.65 |
3.11 |
3.93 |
Joe Kelly - CWS |
Rental |
0.5 |
11.89 |
3.21 |
3.21 |
4.82 |
Scott Barlow - KCR |
1.5 yrs |
0.6 |
12.00 |
4.36 |
3.25 |
4.09 |
Dauri Moreta - PIT |
6.5 yrs |
0.6 |
11.57 |
4.54 |
3.28 |
3.40 |
Kenyan Middleton - CWS |
1.5 yrs |
0.2 |
11.53 |
3.09 |
3.87 |
3.09 |
Of these relievers my focus would likely be on Alzolay, Leiter, and Robertson of the first group (Bednar will cost more than my willingness) and any of the others of interest though like Bednar, the asking price of Hader and Barlow may be too much given their current Closer status.
Here are my trade proposals presuming AA decides the rotation, bullpen, and lineup need addressed using baseballtradevalues.com for values.
Braves get: Cody Bellinger (.4 M) and Albert Alzolay (14.4 M) = 14.8 M Total
Cubs get: JR Ritchie (7.6), Ian Anderson (5 M) and Jesse Franklin (1.9 M) = 14.5 M Total
Braves get: Chris Statton (.9) = .9 M Total
Cardinals get: Luke Waddell (1.6 M) = 1.6 M Total
Braves get: Eduardo Rodriquez (5.9 M) = 5.9 M Total
Tigers get: Jared Shuster (5.2 M) and Brandon Mezquita (.6 M) = 5.8 M Total
40 man and 26 man rosters from trades: Additions: Bellinger, Alzolay, Stratton, Rodriquez; : Ian Anderson (40/26), Jared Shuster (40) = net of +2 to the 40 man and +3 to active 26 man rosters.
Corresponding roster moves to accommodate: DFA Dalton Guthrie or Eli White; IL Kevin Pillar ; DFA Lucas Luetge (hope to retain); IL Colin McHugh
After this, there will be several crucial roster crunch decisions when pitchers are healthy. While not necessarily flashy, I believe this increases team depth heading towards the playoffs without draining the farm too much more.
What say you? Am I way off base of team needs, player values, or potential targets? What would you do? It’s your rosterbation too, just please… rosterbate responsibly!
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