2024 projection systems continue to love the Atlanta Braves. This time it is Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections which were released at FanGraphs on Friday. These aren’t to be confused with FanGraphs’ playoff odds which were released earlier this week. ZiPS projections are a part of FanGraphs’ system for their playoff odds, but the ones we are looking at today come exclusively from ZiPS.
Per Szymborski, these standings are a result of a million simulations. He explains the methodology here:
So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion (the computational algorithms, that is — though it would be fun to don a tuxedo and play chemin de fer like James Bond).
This week we saw PECOTA and FanGraphs’ Playoff odds install the Braves as overwhelming favorites to win the 2024 World Series. ZiPS is high on the Braves as well, but is a little more conservative.
Atlanta is projected for 95 wins, has a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series. They are also projected to be 10 games better than the Philadelphia Phillies. The system projects the Los Angeles Dodgers for 93 wins and a 13.9% chance to win the World Series.
That ZiPS likes the Atlanta Braves can hardly be considered a surprise considering they won 104 games last year, all projection systems everywhere love them, and I’ve been warning non-Braves fans that this would be the likely result all winter. What else is there to say? They’re a great team and there’s no scary number two in the division.
Finding another projection system that is bullish on the Braves isn’t surprising given the current state of their roster. Still, if you enjoy projections, Szymborski’s is one of the best and he does a good job of explaining the methodology.