Battery Power - April 10: Reds 6, Braves 3Your one stop shop for everything Atlanta Braveshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52890/favicon-32x32..png2022-04-11T13:00:00-04:00http://www.batterypower.com/rss/stream/227823992022-04-11T13:00:00-04:002022-04-11T13:00:00-04:00Braves have a(nother) absurdly annoying opening series
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<figcaption>This is Matt Olson before he realizes he’s going to hold the record for best-hit-ball-that-was-an-outin-2022-so-far. | Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>This is a weird thing that keeps happening</p> <p id="5umsLG">The Braves have been awesome since 2018, but their opening series have not necessarily followed that script. It’s small potatoes in the smorgasbord that is the entire season, but it’s nonetheless memorable (and memorably annoying) precisely because it happens first. </p>
<p id="3NIThz">While the Braves won their season-opening series against the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> in 2018 (thanks, in part, to a Nick Markakis walkoff on Opening Day), they were swept by the Phightins in 2019, allowing 23 runs in three games. The Braves beat the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> in the July series that started 2020, but the season started with a 1-0, Jacob deGrom-informed shutdown. Last year, the campaign that ended with a trophy and some very bling-y rings started with four straight losses, including another sweep in Philadephia where the Braves scored just thrice in three games.</p>
<p id="hCwIBd">To start 2022, the Braves split a four-game set with the Reds. That isn’t <em>that</em> bad — a bit disappointing, to be sure, but not horrendous. (It’s not, for example, the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> losing a series to the Rockies, which is also a thing that will happen in baseball with some regularity.) I initially wanted to type in this paragraph that the mode expectation for a four-game series is generally a split, because baseball team quality doesn’t vary that much, but I was surprised to learn that when actually calculating this for the 2022 iterations of the Braves and the Reds, the mode expectation should’ve been the Braves winning three games. Why? Well, you might be surprised to learn that Fangraphs projections currently have the Braves as having the best winning percentage in MLB (see here: <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings)">https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings)</a>. The Reds, meanwhile, are not awful, but still bottom 10. If you take these two teams, use the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5">Log5 (odds ratio) method</a>, you get the following outcomes:</p>
<ul>
<li id="033wlu">Braves sweep: 14 percent chance</li>
<li id="kfG6D1">Braves win three of four: 35 percent chance</li>
<li id="Pw60iY">Braves split: 34 percent chance</li>
<li id="xM6tWU">Braves lose three of four: 14 percent chance</li>
<li id="IyNmN1">Braves get swept: two percent chance</li>
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<p id="iLTZtf">Someone could definitely squabble with this spurious precision by pointing out that said rest-of-season win percentage assumes the return of the one and only Ronald Acuña Jr., who was not playing in this series, so maybe the split is the mode outcome after all — but the Reds were also without Luis Castillo and Mike Minor, so who knows. The point is, going 2-2 in any four-game stretch is the opposite of a big deal, but it still wasn’t super-fun, and compounds the recent history of some very underwhelming season-opening series performances.</p>
<p id="1Glq0v">But what I want to talk about is not just the fact that the Braves only won two of four. It’s <em>how</em> it happened, because seriously, the manner in which they split straight-up <em><strong>sucked</strong></em>.</p>
<p id="lk3uGB">At a box score level, there’s nothing too amiss — the Braves lost 6-3 twice, and won by a run twice. But if you look just a little deeper, it gets grimly wackier.</p>
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<p id="3DVzEY">In the season opener, the Braves out-xwOBAed the Reds by over .050, yet finished with a wOBA .075 lower. They lost 6-3. (For comparison, league wOBA and xwOBA last year hovered below .320, so the Reds scored six runs while not even getting their wOBA that high.)</p>
<p id="kMtY6U">In Game 2, they out-xwOBAed and out-wOBAed the Reds by nearly .100, which amounted to... a one-run win.</p>
<p id="cHfzJx">In Game 3, the Reds had a pathetic .162 xwOBA / .132 wOBA and scored a run, while the Braves had a fine-to-above-average wOBA and xwOBA and scored... two runs.</p>
<p id="xhFMi5">The kicker came in Game 4, where the Braves again lost by three runs despite out-xwOBAing the Reds by nearly .100 — their xwOBA underperformance and the Reds’ overperformance meant that despite the Braves out-xwOBAing the Reds in every game, they still lost two of them, where the Reds outperformed their xwOBA to the extent that they topped the Braves’ wOBA.</p>
<p id="EwNzKR">If you just roll things up for the season-to-date as a whole, now that every team has finished its opening series:</p>
<ul>
<li id="haQWyz">The Braves have the 10th-best xwOBA in MLB at .360. (For comparison, they finished last year at .333, fifth in MLB and best in the NL-less DH, even with missing Acuña for the second half.) </li>
<li id="X8VgJN">The Braves have the 17th-best wOBA in MLB at .306. That’s quite a large gap. Last year, they finished ninth in MLB in wOBA, with fourth-biggest xwOBA underperformance in MLB, driven in large part by early-season luck tiger shenanigans in that regard.</li>
<li id="E9iTMY">The Reds are tied with the Athletics for the worst xwOBA-to-date in MLB at .264. Good job, Braves pitching and contact management! They also have MLB’s fourth-worst wOBA, and actually underperformed their xwOBA in the series. Yet, two wins. </li>
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<p id="jxBhI3">When you talk about a perfect storm of ball-in-play, HR/FB, sequencing, etc. nonsense afflicting you, it definitely happened in this series.</p>
<p id="82Erbf">The Braves finished the weekend with 14 outs on balls in play marked “barrels” or “solid contact,” by far the most in MLB. (The <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a>, second with 11, have the most barreled outs with eight, compared to the Braves’ four.) </p>
<p id="4M1oIB">This out by Matt Olson had a 1.931 xwOBA, which is presently the highest xwOBA-for-an-out of the season:</p>
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<p id="P2RsGt">In all of 2021, there were only eight balls with a similar or higher xwOBA that went for outs (Matt Olson had one of those too); none happened with the Braves involved or at Truist Park. Olson, by the way, has a .641 xwOBA and .664 wOBA through four games, so uh... run for your lives or something. He and Marcell Ozuna are the only two Braves that finished this series with wOBA exceeding xwOBA.</p>
<p id="mQYANP">Anyway, at this point you’ve gotten the gist. I just want to leave you with one more thing. I took all games played at Truist Park last year, and modeled the wOBA against the actual runs scored. There’s a few different ways to do this, so I have both a linear fit and a quadratic fit, though it doesn’t super-matter how you think of it. In short, more wOBA, more runs (duh).</p>
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<p id="KlHWqa">We can take these and apply them to the Braves’ and Reds wOBAs:</p>
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<p id="LUfHbA">On a game-to-game basis, the wOBAs don’t indicate the Braves should have won the series — the split makes sense. But in aggregate, the Braves, due to sequencing and its annoying friends, lost three or four runs in the series; the Reds, meanwhile, gained about seven by the same token.</p>
<p id="96jifn">Of course, if we do this with xwOBA, it looks really aggravating.</p>
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<p id="45GLJK">Not only “should the Braves have won every game” (if xwOBA were the only thing that mattered), but they underperformed said calculation by 10-11 runs. The Reds, meanwhile, got five or six extra runs as they “should have.” Fun. </p>
<p id="n21d55">One last note: until now, we’ve ignored defense. Defense doesn’t explain all of this, as some was just sequencing. But we already have 2022 defensive data from Baseball Savant, and the Braves have, as a team, -2 OAA and 0 OAA runs above average, while the Reds have -2 OAA and -1 OAA runs above average. So, the Braves played similar-to-better defense than the Reds, too. I don’t know, man. Woof.</p>
<p id="wJBMiH">In sum, you have my permission to throw stuff. This series sucked. The underlying reasons — more tinkering with the ball, humidors, weather, etc., don’t change that all of this already happened, and we had to watch it. In any case, the calendar doesn’t care, and the Braves are off to yet another series starting tonight. Hopefully it won’t take them basically half a season to shrug off these baseball deity-related doldrums this time around, because it’s more fun when you hit the ball hard and good things happen, than when you do everything right and get stomped (or edged, or whatever) anyway.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2022/4/11/23020423/braves-have-a-nother-absurdly-annoying-opening-seriesIvan the Great2022-04-11T09:00:00-04:002022-04-11T09:00:00-04:00Ian Anderson still trying to find rhythm after shortened spring
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<figcaption>Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Anderson failed to make it out of the third inning Sunday after allowing five runs. </p> <p id="kAwvrI">After struggling with a blister on his toe at the end of Spring Training, Ian Anderson failed to make it out of the third inning in his season debut Sunday against the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a>. Anderson allowed three hits, five walks and five runs in just 2 2/3 innings. The Braves would go on to lose 6-3 and settled for a series split to begin the season. </p>
<p id="irruTf">“Probably all of it. I felt like I was battling myself all day,” Anderson answered when asked what about his start bothered him the most. “I was able to get out of a couple of jams early on. The pitch count kind of caught up with me in the third.”</p>
<p id="FU8QJt">A shortened spring was always going to be a challenge for most pitchers and Anderson had his last start cut short due to the blister. He logged a total of eight innings and Brian Snitker said it was just something that the team is going to have to deal with until he gets fully stretched out. </p>
<p id="X81jog">“I think he’s going to need a start or two more before the rhythm, the whole thing comes,” Snitker said of Anderson. “It didn’t help that he had the short outing last time. He’s going to get his rhythm and all that and when he does that, his command will be better.”</p>
<p id="0SNOWT">Anderson said that the blister was healed and that it wasn’t a problem. He did however admit that subconsciously, it may have affected his delivery. </p>
<p id="Y1E6cE">“The toe feels good. A couple of guys said that maybe subconsciously my delivery might have looked a little different, but it feels good, the skin is healthy,” Anderson said. “So I don’t see it being a problem.”</p>
<p id="eYm6gM">Anderson struggled to control his fastball, but his velocity was down as well. His four-seam averaged 93.2 mph Sunday, down from 94.6 mph that he averaged last season. Again, he attributed that to a lack of innings during the spring. </p>
<p id="xgdM2E">“I feel like I’m still trying to get everything together, get my delivery together and really get going,” Anderson said. “I felt like in the first inning, it was coming out good. So hopefully, that’s something we can build on for them for the next start.”</p>
<p id="RzgWZR">“I thought I threw some really good changeups that they didn’t bite on,” He added. “I had pretty good fortune on the breaking ball. Got a good amount of swings and misses. The fastball command wasn’t good I don’t think. Maybe just trying to do a little too much with it with two strikes. I think that’s just a product, only having six or seven innings till this point.”</p>
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https://www.batterypower.com/2022/4/11/23019641/reds-vs-braves-ian-anderson-comments-shortened-spring-brian-snitkerKris Willis2022-04-10T16:51:35-04:002022-04-10T16:51:35-04:00Ian Anderson struggles as Braves fall to Reds 6-3
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<img alt="Cincinnati Reds v Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZL5x2JceivX1h6VL1KddN-ZKhHM=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70733442/1239899611.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Atlanta splits its opening series with Cincinnati</p> <p id="n2uQQF">Travis d’Arnaud and Matt Olson both homered, but a five-run third inning was more than the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> could overcome in a 6-3 loss to the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a>. </p>
<p id="78C01p">Ian Anderson allowed a single and a walk to Jonathan India and Tyler Naquin to begin the game, but got two pop outs and a grounder to escape the first with no damage, though he did need 28 pitches to finish the frame. He walked one in a scoreless second, but again ran into trouble with the top of the order in the third. </p>
<p id="E36zKK">India walked to lead off the frame and then came around to score on a bloop, 78 mph double by Naquin into the right field corner. Naquin moved up to third on a groundout by Tommy Pham before Anderson issued his fourth walk of the game to Joey Votto, putting runners at the corners. After Tyler Stephenson walked to load the bases, Anderson nearly escaped as Nick Senzel grounded to Swanson, but beat the relay throw at first. The Braves challenged, but replay upheld the ruling on the field. Votto scored to make it 2-0. Colin Moran followed with a weak single (34 percent hit probability) to right that pushed Cincinnati’s lead to 3-0. </p>
<p id="UFy9T6">Anderson was replaced by Sean Newcomb, who threw a wild pitch and then immediately served up a flared, 82-mph-off-the-bat two-run single to Kyle Farmer to make it 5-0. Jake Fraley grounded out to first to bring the inning to a merciful end. </p>
<p id="TFYbk7">It was a tough day for Anderson, who struggled from the start. He allowed three hits, five walks and five runs in just 2 2/3 innings. Anderson threw 74 pitches with 39 going for strikes. He seemed to have trouble getting his changeup at a place where hitters would offer at it, and while the low fastball has been a constant curiosity of his arsenal since his debut, he wasn’t able to throw it today, which may have made it much easier for Reds batters to lay off his changeups.</p>
<p id="VpLkjg">Reds rookie Hunter Greene, on the other hand was impressive early in his major league debut. Greene struck out Matt Olson and Austin Riley to complete a scoreless first. He issued a one-out walk to Ozzie Albies in the second, but again finished off the frame with back-to-back strikeouts. Greene showed his trademark velocity and had the Braves completely off balance for the first three innings. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hunter Greene, 101mph ⛽️ <a href="https://t.co/Irapy9uZ20">pic.twitter.com/Irapy9uZ20</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1513228165749088260?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a>
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<p id="nAkh84">The Braves finally got some good swings against Greene in the fourth. Olson led off the inning with a single and moved all the way to third on a double off the center field wall by Riley. Marcell Ozuna followed with a sacrifice fly that scored Olson to cut the deficit to 5-1. Ozzie Albies walked to put runners at first and second, but Adam Duvall flied out to shallow right for the second out. Alex Dickerson then hit a liner that Votto was able to snag with a dive to end the threat. </p>
<p id="w567cN">The Reds got that run back in the fifth, when Tyler Stephenson connected with a solo shot to left off of Newcomb to make it 6-1. However, Travis d’Arnaud led off the bottom half of the frame with an opposite field shot to pull the Braves back within four. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Travis d'Arnaud took 99mph oppo <a href="https://t.co/s3MVPYB447">pic.twitter.com/s3MVPYB447</a></p>— Bally Sports: Braves (@BravesOnBally) <a href="https://twitter.com/BravesOnBally/status/1513236076156100609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a>
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<p id="eM5rGM">Two batters later, Olson squared up a 101 mph fastball from Greene and sent it out at 110.8 mph for his first home run in a Braves uniform to make it 6-3. </p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/mattolson21?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@mattolson21</a>'s first home run as a Brave has left the building!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheA</a> <a href="https://t.co/OiXuY9oggg">pic.twitter.com/OiXuY9oggg</a></p>— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1513237640820281345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a>
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<p id="TPEcUR">Collin McHugh took over for Newcomb in the sixth and stranded a runner at third with one out, then worked a perfect seventh and retired two more in the eighth before giving way to Tyler Thornburg. McHugh struck out the first four hitters he faced and ended with five in 2 1/3 innings of work. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Collin McHugh, Beautiful 68mph Curveball. <br><br>74 inches for vertical drop. <a href="https://t.co/4heCGODHcV">pic.twitter.com/4heCGODHcV</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1513249333935804418?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a>
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<p id="idqDjQ">The Braves got hits from Dansby Swanson in the seventh and another from Olson in the eighth, but were unable to cash them in. Olson finished with three hits on the day giving him eight in the series. Atlanta managed just six hits in the game and left five men on base. Tyler Naquin and Kyle Farmer each finished with two hits for Cincinnati. </p>
<p id="M06Y9W">Atlanta has to settle for a split in their four-game series, mostly driven by very different results on balls hit into play, irrespective of the quality of contact. That made for an incredibly frustrating series, as the Braves dominated the Reds offensively everywhere but in the runs column. They will continue their homestand Monday when they begin a three-game series against the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a>. </p>
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https://www.batterypower.com/2022/4/10/23019193/reds-vs-braves-final-score-ian-anderson-matt-olsonKris Willis2022-04-10T12:00:00-04:002022-04-10T12:00:00-04:00Reds vs Braves game thread
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<img alt="MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/51xgfkKgrH89Y9zYyEGi-m0pI2U=/0x0:4159x2773/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70732814/usa_today_18053319.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Braves will try to secure a series win Sunday versus the Reds. </p> <p id="qKhuPm">The <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> will wrap up their first series of the 2022 season Sunday afternoon against the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a>. Atlanta fell in the opener 6-3 but came back and won the next two games 7-6 and 2-1. Ian Anderson will make his season debut Sunday while the Reds will go with hard throwing rookie Hunter Greene who will be making his major league debut. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Going for the first series win of the season!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ForTheA?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ForTheA</a> <a href="https://t.co/TBccPdJRJW">pic.twitter.com/TBccPdJRJW</a></p>— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/1513157209009631233?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a>
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<p id="W55D8V">The Braves will stick with the same lineup as Saturday with the exception of catcher Travis d’Arnaud who returns to the eighth spot in the order. Matt Olson had two hits in Saturday’s win and has five in the series. </p>
<p id="IW0J3w">For the Reds, Tyler Stephenson is back behind the plate and hitting fifth. Colin Moran starts at third base and will hit seventh. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">The very first Greene Day❗️<a href="https://twitter.com/PNCBank?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PNCBank</a> <a href="https://t.co/8qXEdeOwUM">pic.twitter.com/8qXEdeOwUM</a></p>— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) <a href="https://twitter.com/Reds/status/1513143694584594432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 10, 2022</a>
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<p id="atfVsZ">First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET and can be seen on Bally Sports South. </p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2022/4/10/23019052/reds-vs-braves-lineups-discussionKris Willis2022-04-10T09:00:00-04:002022-04-10T09:00:00-04:00Ian Anderson, Braves look for series win Sunday against Reds
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<img alt="Wild Card Round - Cincinnati Reds v Atlanta Braves - Game Two" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IboRTwN8eakfpCvV_tQHd7s7wT8=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70732471/1228827955.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The Braves have won two straight after falling on Opening Day.</p> <p id="jupcX0">Since falling on Opening Day, the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> have won two straight games and will try to secure a series win Sunday when they wrap up a four-game series against the <a href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a>. </p>
<p id="RVxwgl">The Braves scored two first inning runs Saturday night and made it hold up in a 2-1 win. Marcell Ozuna had three hits and a pair of doubles in the game. Matt Olson added two more hits and now has five over the last two games. </p>
<p id="lT5oT2">Ian Anderson will make his season debut Sunday for the Braves. Anderson made 24 starts for Atlanta in 2021 and logged a career-high 128 1/3 innings. A shoulder injury cost him more than a month coming out of the All-Star break. He made four starts during the postseason posting a 1.59 ERA and a 3.64 FIP in 17 innings. Anderson left his last spring start due to a blister on his toe, but he said after the game that he didn’t expect it to be a lingering issue. He made one start against the Reds during the regular season in 2021 and allowed five hits and three runs to go along with nine strikeouts in six innings. </p>
<p id="nZc0gM">For the Reds, top pitching prospect Hunter Greene will be making his major league debut in Sunday’s game. Greene is best known for his fastball velocity of which has been clocked at as much as 104 mph in games. However, the key to his long term success lies in his secondary offerings. Baseball America ranked Greene <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2022-top-100-prospects/">as the 34th best prospect in their preseason Top 100 list</a>. </p>
<p id="yCHBF5">Since Austin Riley’s eighth inning homer in the opener, Atlanta has gone homerless over the next two games matching their longest streak from last season. The last time the Braves went without a homer for three games was September 25-28 of 2019.</p>
<p id="2ZbnXl">First pitch Sunday is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET and can be seen on Bally Sports South. </p>
<h3 id="Yq1ksS"><strong>Game Info</strong></h3>
<p id="4YsOeb"><strong>Game Date/Time:</strong> Sunday, April 10, 1:35 p.m. </p>
<p id="W1cneQ"><strong>Location:</strong> Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia</p>
<p id="KWS6OW"><strong>TV:</strong> Bally Sports South</p>
<p id="bhiUkx"><strong>Streaming:</strong> MLB.tv</p>
<p id="WztyWU"><strong>Radio:</strong> 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2022/4/10/23018307/reds-vs-braves-preview-time-tv-streaming-radio-ian-anderson-hunter-greeneKris Willis