Battery Power - June 19: Braves 6, Cubs 0Your one stop shop for everything Atlanta Braveshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52890/favicon-32x32..png2022-06-19T17:23:14-04:00http://www.batterypower.com/rss/stream/229386812022-06-19T17:23:14-04:002022-06-19T17:23:14-04:00Braves avoid Wrigley sweep with 6-0 trouncing of Cubs
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<p>Ian Anderson pitched well and the bats did the needed work against Kyle Hendricks</p> <p id="bm9YkG">After two games where seemingly everything conspired to force the Braves into the “L” column, the Braves encountered little resistance in a 6-0, sweep-avoiding win at Wrigley Field. Travis d’Arnaud hit a three-run homer in the first, Ian Anderson had a delightfully-solid start, and the Braves were able to undo most of the damage that happened in the standings yesterday with the victory.</p>
<p id="25HUqG">A lack of run-scoring longballs plagued the Braves on Friday and Saturday, but that all changed in a hurry on Sunday afternoon against Kyle Hendricks. A fly ball that found grass in right center and a walk set up the big blow of the game, courtesy of Travis d’Arnaud:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Travis d'Arnaud crushes one out of the park! Braves lead the Cubs 3-0 <a href="https://t.co/AYHh2YLACE">pic.twitter.com/AYHh2YLACE</a></p>— Atlanta Braves Radio Network (@BravesRadioNet) <a href="https://twitter.com/BravesRadioNet/status/1538595118151831552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 19, 2022</a>
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<p id="JEMkcZ">d’Arnaud had a chance to add to his tally in the third with two on once more, but struck out to end that frame. No matter, though. Michael Harris II led off the fifth with an opposite-field homer, and then the trio of Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson hit doubles later in the inning to cap the scoring. Olson’s double chased Hendricks, who ended up allowing six runs in 4 <sup>1</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings, including two homers. He did notch a 6/1 K/BB ratio, but the Braves were able to pile on the runs anyway. </p>
<p id="zCl3MP">That was literally all the scoring in the game, as Adrian Sampson came on in relief of Hendricks and utterly flummoxed the Atlanta bats. Sampson threw 4 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> of one-hit, zero-walk, five-strikeout ball, which would have been a lot more brutal were the Braves not already cruising by the time he came in.</p>
<p id="bu3cc4">And cruising they were, thanks to Ian Anderson reaching into his toque and pulling out one of his better starts of the year. Anderson ended up going 6 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> scoreless with a 6/2 K/BB ratio, the first start in which he didn’t yield at least a run this year. It was his third-best start of the season by both FIP and xFIP, featuring six strikeouts, two walks, and a hit-by-pitch. Anderson faced the minimum (thanks to a pickoff and a nifty double play) through three, and didn’t allow a runner to reach second until the sixth, when the first two reached against him. However, he was able to get out of the pseudo-jam with groundout-flyout-groundout. That earned him a shot at another frame, but he was pulled after hitting a batter with two out, none on in the seventh.</p>
<p id="ZU93aH">Jesse Chavez relieved Anderson, gave up a single, and then got out of the inning. He struck out the first two in the eighth, but was chased by single-walk-single, prompting an A.J. Minter appearance. Minter, whose leadoff walk and eventual sac fly allowed doomed the Braves on Friday, got Patrick Wisdom to fly out to give him a three-pitch appearance on the afternoon. Kenley Jansen worked a seven-pitch ninth in which he threw seven strikes to end the game.</p>
<p id="OMwjzX">Each of Swanson, Riley, and Olson had multi-hit games, with Olson going 3-for-3 with three doubles and a walk. That walk was the only one earned by the Braves in the game. Phil Gosselin went 0-for-4 in his first start in a Braves uniform in over seven years. Braves pitching held the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> mostly hapless, except for, amusingly, Ian Happ, who went 2-for-3 with a walk and was the only Northsider to reach base more than once.</p>
<p id="AHkTOh">The <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, Giants, Cardinals, and <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> all lost today, while the Padres are losing big in Denver. The <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> have won already, and the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> hold a one-run lead. That makes this a pretty good day for the Braves, who will return home to face off the Giants in a very playoff-relevant matchup on Monday night.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2022/6/19/23175000/atlanta-braves-chicago-cubs-recap-final-score-6-0-win-avoid-sweep-ian-anderson-kyle-hendricksIvan the Great2022-06-19T13:30:00-04:002022-06-19T13:30:00-04:00GameThread, 6/19/2022: Braves @ Cubs
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<figcaption>Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Braves look to avoid the sweep behind Ian Anderson, with Kyle Hendricks opposing</p> <p id="L74WlP">As they look to beat up on Kyle Hendricks and avoid being swept at Wrigley Field, the Braves have made a few lineup moves. Marcell Ozuna grabs a bench spot in favor of both Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras starting; Phil Gosselin gets his first start as a Brave in over seven years in lieu of Orlando Arcia. It’s possible that Arcia was scratched for some reason, but if not, it’s kind of weird that he gets an off-day after playing only about every 10 days before the injury to Ozzie Albies.</p>
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<p id="MYQpdR">The Cubs rotate things around a bit too:</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here is today's <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cubs?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cubs</a> starting lineup at Wrigley Field. <a href="https://t.co/NK6VXuEMDb">pic.twitter.com/NK6VXuEMDb</a></p>— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1538541714499059719?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 19, 2022</a>
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<p id="w1M6TW">Jonathan Villar hits cleanup in the starting lineup for the first time <em>ever</em> in his 1,000+ game career (he’s entered the game in that spot but never started there). The first baseman hitting ninth is a rarity, but the Cubs are doing that too. </p>
<p id="MFP5dy">So, it’s a novel defensive arrangement and lineup for both teams. We’ll see what happens.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2022/6/19/23174748/gamethread-6-19-2022-braves-cubsIvan the Great2022-06-19T09:00:52-04:002022-06-19T09:00:52-04:00It’s salvage time for Braves, Anderson in Wrigley finale
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<figcaption>Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>And maybe also “pound Kyle Hendricks again” time as well.</p> <p id="TE0fnq">After notching their best winning streak since 2013, the Braves have run into an annoyingly-shaped roadblock during their first two games at Wrigley Field — where the same problems that hounded them in April and May reared their heads.</p>
<p id="XGveZX">The Braves snapped their streak and dropped the series opener 1-0. They had a fine .327 xwOBA for the game, but a .181 wOBA... yet still lost to a Cubs team with a .160 xwOBA and .171 xwOBA in the game. They then lost 6-3 on Saturday despite a stellar .381 xwOBA and even a fine enough .306 wOBA, because the Cubs somehow managed a .391 wOBA on top of a .280 xwOBA. C’est la vie, so it goes, etc., but it’s always annoying when it does. The Braves haven’t had a lower xwOBA than their opponents in a game since May 29, and the streak was aided in large part by <em>not</em> dropping games where they had better offensive inputs than their opponents. Yet, that’s what’s happened to end the streak and deliver another loss, and the Braves are going to have to figure out how to defy the vengeful baseball gods to get back on the winning path.</p>
<p id="up1izk">This game has a lot at stake in the micro sense. A win is the difference between a 3-3 road trip and a 4-2 one. A win would at least tie the season series with the Cubs at 3-3 rather than making it a losing, 2-4 one. Coming into this series, the Braves had last been swept by the Cubs in 2017, but haven’t lost a series at Wrigley since 2017, and haven’t been swept at Wrigley since 2015. Avoiding the sweep is still on the table, even with the series loss. In the macro sense, there isn’t too much, as the Braves’ good June run has kicked their playoff odds up above 75 percent... but most of the NL contenders have won on Friday and Saturday, so their relative position in the standings has eroded nonetheless. They currently trail the Mets by 6.5 games in the division, and have a half-game lead over the Brewers for the final Wild Card spot. The Braves also haven’t lost three games in a row all season, so avoiding that ignoble mark would be great too.</p>
<p id="pUcb7Q">The Braves will throw Ian Anderson at the Cubs in the hopes of avoiding a sweep. Anderson continues to have a weird and underwhelming season — 114 ERA-, 114 FIP-, 108 xFIP-. His xERA, which I calculate would be around a 94 xERA-, is his best ERA estimator, but everything else looks pretty bad. The obvious big difference for Anderson is something like this:</p>
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<li id="NN34KG">Pre-2022: 3.55 FIP, 3.92 xFIP first two times through; 4.77 FIP, 3.60 xFIP afterwards</li>
<li id="xXWi16">2022: 3.76 FIP, 4.10 xFIP first two times through; 7.81 FIP, 5.41 xFIP afterwards</li>
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<p id="swr1Hh">While Anderson has been worse in 2022 in general, he went from being a guy not showing any real times through the order penalty to one with an extreme one. It’s not clear whether this will persist, or is just a weird half-season quirk at this point, but it has definitely hurt his numbers. </p>
<p id="qu8WFM">In the past, Anderson had one of his best career starts against the Cubs, throwing seven one-hit, shutout innings with an 8/1 K/BB ratio against them in April of 2021. It remains his best start ever by Game Score (v2), and is pretty close by FIP and xFIP.</p>
<p id="qgOVDw">Opposing Anderson will be a guy that has also struggled a lot in 2022: Kyle Hendricks. The relative soft-tosser took the league by storm for the first seven years of his career, going against the grain by managing contact and hitting spots rather than lighting up the radar gun, en route to 4 fWAR/200 over his first career 1,047 innings. But, pretty much everything collapsed for him last year (1.3 fWAR in 181 innings) and has only gotten worse since (0.2 fWAR in 63 <sup>2</sup>⁄<sub>3</sub> innings so far in 2022). This season, Hendricks has attempted to increase his four-seamer usage in lieu of his sinker to try to reverse his 2021, but it hasn’t helped at all, because hitters are just obliterating his four-seamer (.467 xwOBA-against). </p>
<p id="moHAwy">The Braves haven’t faced Hendricks this year, but obliterated him in 2021, scoring seven runs against him twice, with four homers in one game and three homers in the other. In fact, while Anderson’s best Game Score (v2) game has come against the Cubs, two of Hendricks four worst starts by that metric have come against the Braves. Hopefully the Braves can replicate that feat and deal Hendricks’ flagging career another blow, avoiding the sweep in the process.</p>
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<p id="YI1hcZ"><strong>Game Info</strong></p>
<p id="WoDWWs">Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs</p>
<p id="oRMzgB">Sunday, June 19, 2022</p>
<p id="KamGyv">2:20 pm EDT</p>
<p id="3I2JZp">Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL</p>
<p id="cjm2BK">TV: Bally Sports Southeast</p>
<p id="N6qHOu">Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan</p>
<p id="M0bU0M">XM Radio: Online, Ch. 184</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2022/6/19/23174606/atlanta-braves-chicago-cubs-preview-june-19-2022-ian-anderson-kyle-hendricks-salvageIvan the Great