Battery Power - Spring Training and Opening DayYour one stop shop for everything Atlanta Braveshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/52890/favicon-32x32..png2014-03-31T12:00:24-04:00http://www.batterypower.com/rss/stream/52680972014-03-31T12:00:24-04:002014-03-31T12:00:24-04:00Opening Day Memories
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<figcaption>Scott Cunningham</figcaption>
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<p>What's your favorite memory from a Braves' Opening Day?</p> <p>Opening Day is upon us. Even though baseball is all about trying to see who will be the team to raise the Commissioner's Trophy at the end of October, personally I believe that Opening Day is pretty amazing in itself. To me, it's the best part of the season because for one day out of the season, everybody is on equal footing (unless you're the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Dodgers</a>, <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Diamondbacks</a>, or <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Padres</a> this season, then you have 1-to-3 games up on everyone else. What a buzzkill.). It's exciting because optimism is everywhere. Granted, we've got all sorts of projection models and predictions that seem to make you think that the entire season is going to exactly to plan. That never happens. If it did, the <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Washington Nationals</a> would be heading into this season as the defending NL East champions instead of the <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/rome-braves" class="sbn-auto-link">Braves</a>. But that didn't happen, because sometimes you <a href="http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com/">just can't predict baseball</a>, and Opening Day is the best day of the year to momentarily discard those predictions and just enjoy the moment. Everybody (for the most part) is 0-0, and everybody's in first. Or for you cynics out there, March 31st just means that it's time for another 6 months of pain and suffering, and cursing whoever put this vex of a team on you. Either way, it's Opening Day. You can look at it however you want to, and that's the beauty of it.</p>
<p>One example of this (and what has become my favorite Opening Day memory) was back in <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2010-schedule-scores.shtml">2010</a>, when the Braves were beginning their final season under Bobby Cox. The Braves were actually pegged to be a pretty good team back then; Maybe not a consensus favorite to make their return to the top of the hill that is the NL East, but <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview10/news/story?page=10expertpicks">a lot of experts</a> had them penciled as a nice pick to win the Wild Card. Eventually they did so, but only <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v12744563/1032010-phils-fall-victim-to-braves-fate/?c_id=mlb">after clinching it on the last day of the season in typically heart-attack inducing fashion</a>. The season ultimately ended with the Braves going down to the eventual <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series" class="sbn-auto-link">World Series</a> champion <a href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">San Francisco Giants</a>, so they ended up finishing where most experts predicted them to. But the events that occurred on April 5th, 2010 would have made you think that it would have been a much different story, because that's what a win will do for a fan's confidence on Opening Day: You win that first game, and you win it in amazing fashion, then you think that the sky's the only limit.</p>
<p>Speaking of the sky, it was a perfect Spring day back then, and the beautiful baseball weather at Turner Field set the stage for what ended up being an equally beautiful win for the Braves over the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Chicago Cubs</a>. It started off a bit rocky, as the Cubs teed off on <span>Derek Lowe</span> in the first, scoring 3 runs. The aforementioned optimism of Opening Day may have been curtailed by Lowe's stumble out of the gates, but the bottom half of that inning renewed the optimism in a huge manner.</p>
<p>The Braves got those 3 runs back in immediate fashion, taking advantage of an especially rustled <span>Carlos Zambrano</span> on that day. With 2 on and 1 out, the stage was set for the young kid from nearby McDonough, Georgia to make his debut at the big show in grand fashion. There was a lot of excitement surrounding Jason Heyward's debut, and what better way for the rookie to start things off by coming up to the plate at home with a chance to put his team ahead. I remember watching the game hoping that he could get a gapper and simply give the Braves a lead to continue the strong inning. What we got was something that, if you were there, you'll be able to tell any and everyone who asks about it exactly what you did when it happened. You'd be able to tell them exactly how loud it got in that stadium, and you'll be able to tell them the amount of pandemonium that was going on at the Ted when this happened: What we got was a <i>moment</i>.</p>
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<p>I can't tell you what was going through Heyward's head when he laid the smackdown on that ball and put it into orbit with it eventually landing in the Braves' bullpen. I can't tell you what was going through Zambrano's head as he watched a ball that he threw to a rookie nearly land in Decatur. I can, however, tell you what I was thinking when that happened on Opening Day. <i>"THE BRAVES ARE GOING ALL THE WAY. ALL THE WAY. 162-0 BRUH. HEYWARD FOR MVP, ROOKIE OF THE YEAR, MAYOR, GOVERNOR, ALL THAT. ALL THE WAY. ALLLLLLLLL. THEEEEEE. WAAAYYYYY." </i>That's not an exact recollection, and I'm sure that there was probably more "colorful" vocabulary running through my brain at that point. Needless to say, I was ecstatic, and from that point on as the Braves continued to beat on Zambrano and the rest of the Cubs' pitching staff <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL201004050.shtml">on their way to a 16-4 victory</a>, I had the feeling that maybe the wildcard and Divisional Series wouldn't be the ceiling for the team. Maybe the Championship Series wouldn't be the ceiling either. Maybe this team could go all the way. Looking back, it's pretty ridiculous to believe that a season is destined for the glory of raising the Commissioner's Trophy after just one game, but that's what Opening Day is all about: If it goes your way, then <span>you think that there's no stopping your team from continuing their run in order to achieve greatness.</span> Even if it is indeed ridiculous, it's still a beautiful feeling to have for your favorite baseball team, and it's exactly the feeling that I had once the 27th out was recorded on that day.</p>
<p>Of course, there are probably plenty of you who have a different memory from past Braves' Opening Days that you hold near and dear to your heart. That's why this post is here: It's Opening Day, so it's time to share those memories. It's time to feel the optimism. It's time to get excited.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/31/5564362/opening-day-memoriesDemetrius Bell2014-03-30T16:00:02-04:002014-03-30T16:00:02-04:00Pre-Opening Day Poll: How will the Braves fare?
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>How do you feel heading into Opening Day?</p> <p>As we head into the regular season tomorrow (!), we at Talking Chop wanted to get a feel for how the general Braves community feels about the team before games begin. Basically, how do you feel about the team as a whole right now? Will they win it all?</p>
<p>Hopefully these feelings will only continue to go up as the season rolls along, so we'll try to keep a pulse on how things are going in Braves Country.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/30/5563676/poll-pre-opening-day-thoughts-on-how-the-braves-will-fareJane Hammond2014-03-30T14:00:01-04:002014-03-30T14:00:01-04:00Opening Day 2014: The how, when and where to watch
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Tomorrow, tomorrow! Braves baseball tomorrow!</p> <p>In about 24 hours, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/rome-braves">Braves</a>' 2014 season will begin in Milwaukee. Here are the best ways to watch, listen and enjoy the return of baseball.</p>
<p><b>Television:</b> All local-area coverage will be on SportSouth. If you've missed the multiple airings so far, the 2014 season preview will be on at 12. Get ready for the game with a special one-hour Braves Live! show, followed by first pitch at 2:10.</p>
<p>Of course, if you're not in the SportSouth range, MLB.tv has got you covered for the game itself.</p>
<p><b>Radio:</b> The game will be on <a href="http://www.680thefan.com/index.php" target="_blank">680 AM</a> and 106.7 FM in the Atlanta area, and on the rest of <a href="http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/atl/schedule/affiliates.jsp" target="_blank">Braves Radio Network</a> as usual.</p>
<p><b>Even better:</b> If you're stuck in work or class like me, I'm sure your boss/professor/etc. won't mind if you listen quietly and chitchat about the game here on Talking Chop.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/30/5563708/opening-day-2014-the-how-when-and-where-to-watchJane Hammond2014-03-29T18:55:48-04:002014-03-29T18:55:48-04:00Braves Set 25-Man Opening Day Roster
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<figcaption>Stacy Revere</figcaption>
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<p>The roster is set as we get closer to Opening Day</p> <p>After finishing up the Future Stars game on what turned out to be a swamp-like field up in Rome, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/teams/rome-braves">Braves</a> announced their finalized 25-man roster for the 2014 season <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/status/450035055508086784">via twitter</a>.</p>
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<p>PITCHERS: <span>Gus Schlosser</span> (RH), <span>Julio Teheran</span> (RH), <span>Ian Thomas</span> (LH), <span>Anthony Varvaro</span> (RH), and <span>Jordan Walden</span> (RH) and <span>Alex Wood</span> (RH).</p>
— <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a> (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/statuses/450035211729137664">March 29, 2014</a>
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<p>PITCHERS: <span>Luis Avilan</span> (LH), <span>Ryan Buchter</span> (LH), <span>David Carpenter</span> (RH), <span>David Hale</span> (RH), <span>Aaron Harang</span> (RH), <span>Craig Kimbrel</span> (RH).</p>
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/statuses/450035146302193664">March 29, 2014</a>
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<p>INFIELDERS: <span>Freddie Freeman</span>, <span>Chris Johnson</span>, <span>Tyler Pastornicky</span>, <span>Ramiro Pena</span>, <span>Andrelton Simmons</span> and <span>Dan Uggla</span>.</p>
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/statuses/450035325650604032">March 29, 2014</a>
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<p>OUTFIELDERS: <span>Jason Heyward</span>, <span>Jordan Schafer</span>, <span>B.J. Upton</span> and Justin Upton. CATCHERS: <span>Ryan Doumit</span>, <span>Evan Gattis</span> and <span>Gerald Laird</span>.</p>
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/statuses/450035472187015168">March 29, 2014</a>
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<p>Of course, there are a few obvious names who are missing in the above tweets (such as <span>Mike Minor</span>, <span>Gavin Floyd</span>, and <span>Ervin Santana</span> (who should be ready sooner rather than later)) but those guys are already on the <a href="http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=atl">40-man roster</a> and will probably make their way onto the 25-man roster as soon as they're healthy. To see how the actual 25-man roster looks compared to what we predicted earlier this Spring, you can click <a href="http://www.talkingchop.com/2014/3/16/5513724/predicting-the-braves-2014-opening-day-roster">here</a> for that. It's pretty close to what was predicted, aside from a couple of misses here and there.</p>
<p>With that being said, there you have it: This will be the squad that will be facing the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a> in less than 48 hours as the Braves begin their defense of the NL East crown. Excited, yet?</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/29/5562186/braves-set-25-man-opening-day-rosterDemetrius Bell2014-03-29T14:25:01-04:002014-03-29T14:25:01-04:00Braves Futures Game Open Thread 3/29
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Discuss as the big club takes on a team comprised of Braves prospects at State Mutual Field in Rome.</p> <p>First pitch was originally scheduled for 2:00 PM ET today, but rain has pushed back the start time to 2:25 PM ET, tentatively. <span>Mike Minor</span> will make his spring debut starting for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Braves</a>, while <span>Jason Hursh</span> will take the mound for the Futures Team. Top prospect <span>Lucas Sims</span> is also scheduled to pitch 2-3 innings later in the game. Starting lineups are as follows:</p>
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<p>Today's Braves lineup at Rome: Heyward 9 BUpton 8 Freeman 3 Johnson 5 JUpton 7 Doumit DH Uggla 4 Gattis 2 Simmons 6 Minor 1</p>
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/statuses/449928961280466944">March 29, 2014</a>
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<p>Today's Futures lineup at Rome: Peraza 4 Lipka 8 Caratini 2 Elander 7 Salcedo 5 Reyes 9 Sanchez 3 Meneses DH Castro 6 Hursh 1</p>
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) <a href="https://twitter.com/Braves/statuses/449929074618953728">March 29, 2014</a>
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<p>MiLB.TV is free as part of their pre-season preview this weekend, and the game will be shown on their website for no charge at</p>
<p>I<a href="http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?topic_id=69617826&content_id=31682391" target="_blank">this link.</a>t should be fun to watch a group of young, intriguing prospects take on what appears to be the Opening Day lineup for the big club. This is the Braves' last tune up before opening day in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/29/5561494/braves-futures-game-open-thread-3-29-braves-vs-braves-futuresIan.Morris2014-03-29T10:00:10-04:002014-03-29T10:00:10-04:00What to make of Uggla's surprisingly good spring
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<figcaption>Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Dan Uggla came on strong during Grapefruit League play in 2014 after an unproductive season for the Braves last year. Can he carry over his success into the regular season?</p> <p>After a dismal season for the <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Atlanta Braves</a> in 2013 marred by inconsistency, an inability to make contact and defensive miscues, Dan Uggla became one of the Braves' two whipping boys (along with <span>BJ Upton</span>) and was left off of the playoff roster. Despite this, Uggla has put together a statistically-promising spring and looks poised to regain his spot as Atlanta's starting second baseman. What does Uggla's fantastic spring portend for his production in 2014?</p>
<p>To be blunt, <span>Dan Uggla's</span> 2013 season was not what Frank Wren and the Atlanta Braves had in mind for his production after trading <span>Omar Infante</span> and <span>Mike Dunn</span> to the then-Florida <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Marlins</a> in exchange for Uggla and then signing him to a 5-year, $62.5 million deal in turn back in December 2010. The Braves acquired the then-31-year-old second baseman in order to provide an offensive shot in the arm from the right side of the plate. Uggla's tenure in Miami was marked by consistent productivity at the plate, as he met or exceeded 27 home runs during all of his four seasons as a Marlin, and generally posted above-average on-base marks. His career wRC+ as a Marlin was 118, indicating offensive production approximately 20% better than league average. Uggla was coming off of an excellent age-30 season for the Marlins, in which he slugged 33 home runs, posted an OBP of .369, and a 135 wRC+.</p>
<p>Uggla's first two seasons in Atlanta, contrary to public perception, were not all that deviant from what the front office wanted to receive in terms of production from him. He got off to a horrific start for the 2011 Braves, but ended up hitting 36 home runs (the highest mark of his career) with a solid 111 wRC+. Uggla's power numbers went down in 2012 (he only hit 19 home runs), but his walk rate (and on-base percentage) skyrocketed. For the first time in his career, advanced defensive metrics favored Uggla's defense, and he ended up with a surprisingly high 3.3 fWAR figure.</p>
<p>There was hope coming into the 2013 season that Uggla would continue to do what he does, in posting an above-average OBP with solid power numbers, and he looked to be on the right track through the All-Star Break. However, things went terribly wrong. Uggla slogged through a putrid month of play after the All-Star Break, and then opted to undergo LASIK surgery in an attempt to aid him with his vision and pitch recognition.</p>
<p>As you can see in the tables below, this did nothing to aid his productivity. The Braves even took the seemingly unthinkable step by leaving Uggla off of the playoff roster in favor of waiver-wire acquisition Elliot Johnson. One can see just how badly Uggla performed after his surgery with a quick glance at the tables below. His power disappeared, he began making sparse contact, and when he did make contact, it was generally of the weak variety (he posted an almost unthinkable 40.0% IFFB rate in this timeframe). As someone who watched most of his at-bats down the stretch, he was an abject disaster at the plate. He seemed unable to recognize off-speed and breaking pitches, he had major issues with timing, and he was unable to make any sort of productive contact due to the aforementioned pitch recognition and timing issues. It was really just sad to watch, frankly. Of course, there is always the caveat of small sample size into play with his post-LASIK surgery statistics, but I don't think they paint a drastically unfair picture of what Uggla did considering what I saw from him at the plate during this time frame.</p>
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<td><b>2013 Statistics</b></td>
<td><b>PA</b></td>
<td><b>H</b></td>
<td><b>HR</b></td>
<td><b>BA</b></td>
<td><b>OBP</b></td>
<td><b>SLG</b></td>
<td><b>ISO</b></td>
<td><b>K%</b></td>
<td><b>BB%</b></td>
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<td><b>Dan Uggla</b></td>
<td>537</td>
<td>80</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>.179</td>
<td>.309</td>
<td>.362</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.183</td>
<td>31.8%</td>
<td>14.3%</td>
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<td><b>post-LASIK 2013 Statistics</b></td>
<td><b>PA</b></td>
<td><b>H</b></td>
<td><b>HR</b></td>
<td><b>BA</b></td>
<td><b>OBP</b></td>
<td><b>SLG</b></td>
<td><b>ISO</b></td>
<td><b>K%</b></td>
<td><b>BB%</b></td>
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<td><b>Dan Uggla</b></td>
<td>77</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>.133</td>
<td>.325</td>
<td>.183</td>
<td>.050</td>
<td>32.5%</td>
<td>19.5%</td>
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<td><b>2014 ST Statistics</b></td>
<td><b>PA</b></td>
<td><b> H</b></td>
<td><b>HR</b></td>
<td><b>BA</b></td>
<td><b>OBP</b></td>
<td><b>SLG</b></td>
<td><b>ISO</b></td>
<td><b>K%</b></td>
<td><b>BB%</b></td>
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<td><b>Dan Uggla</b></td>
<td>67</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>.269</td>
<td>.403</td>
<td>.538</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">.269</td>
<td>26.9%</td>
<td>17.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<p>Fortunately, Uggla's offensive performance during Grapefruit League play this season offers some optimism towards what he could produce in 2014. There was much speculation during the Braves' offseason and early in Spring Training that Uggla could be usurped by a prospect such as Tommy La Stella or a backup such as <span>Tyler Pastornicky</span> or <span>Ramiro Peña</span> as the Braves' starting second baseman. Some even suggested that Uggla be cut during the offseason, and it's probably safe to assume that the Braves shopped Uggla to teams such as the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Blue Jays</a> who were searching for a potential second baseman. However, it was made clear during the spring that the job was Uggla's to lose, and his performance during Spring Training this year has cemented his status as the starting second baseman for Atlanta.</p>
<p>The stats above demonstrate the increased level of production that Uggla's put forth this spring. In a similarly-sized sample to his post-LASIK statistics, he has increased his power output, cut down on his strikeouts, and made better contact than he did down the stretch last season. Now, granted, we are looking at two minute sample sizes and the quality of pitching that Uggla saw during a Major League season is higher than the mix of legitimate big league arms and Minor League fodder that he saw during the spring, but I'm not just going to toss aside these improvements as a mere function of a small, random sample. Let's take a look at why this spring has given me some hope that Uggla could be a decent source of production for the Braves this season.</p>
<p>I'll breach the subject of Uggla's recovery from LASIK surgery before I approach anything else with the disclaimer than I am no ophthalmologist, optometrist, or expert on eye surgery. However, by quickly doing some internet research, one sees that there can be certain vision complications associated with the recovery from LASIK surgery. <a href="http://www.fda.gov/medicaldevices/productsandmedicalprocedures/surgeryandlifesupport/lasik/ucm061270.htm" target="_blank">The FDA's website</a> has a primer on LASIK surgery, and notes that it may take patients up to 3-6 months for their vision to completely stabilize following the procedure. As you'll recall, Uggla only missed fewer than two weeks recovering from his procedure, so it's possible that his vision hadn't properly adjusted. One would think that the Braves' medical staff would have questioned Uggla and performed tests to indicate whether or not his vision was acceptable to perform, however, I suppose it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Uggla could have sugarcoated how he felt following the surgery. Fluctuations in vision are also commonly experienced, so perhaps his vision was off-and-on between the range of acceptability to poor. Part of the reason that Uggla's spring gives me hope is that he seems to be reacting to pitches better and has a better gauge of the strike zone, which is demonstrated in his reducing K% and the improved quality of his contact. Therefore, I suspect that Uggla's vision is better than it was in the immediate month-and-a-half following this LASIK procedure now, and that could aid him with pitch recognition and plate vision, helping his productivity.</p>
<p>Furthermore, I'm optimistic because of the power that Uggla has showcased during his Grapefruit League performance. Uggla's power has been the hallmark of his offensive profile throughout the duration of his career, and that isn't going to change. <a href="http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=898252-braves-dan-uggla-happy-with-results-of-retooled-swing" target="_blank">Uggla was quoted in USA Today</a> as saying that "It's not a new swing, I just got back to where I was before." Uggla's swing is one that generates loft on his batted balls when he's going well, as he utilizes an upper-cut swing in combination with his physical strength to drive balls out of the yard. The following video, in which Uggla smashes a dead-pull home run over the left-field fence off of <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Phillies</a> pitcher <span>Mario Hollands</span>, showcases Uggla's still-existent power stroke.</p>
<center><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=31491367&topic_id=6479266&width=400&height=224&property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0">Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe></center>
<p>You can see how Uggla adjusts to a fastball that would have likely been called a ball, higher than the reaches of the upper limit of the strike zone near the height of his chest, and uses his considerable torque and power to put backspin on a ball that, conservatively, traveled around 400 feet and made its way over the fence. This exemplifies what I think of when I think of Uggla's tenure with Florida, as he was seemingly always peppering balls over the fence when pitchers attempted to challenge him with fastballs up in the zone. Uggla clearly still has the physical power and ability to produce impressive power numbers, and I think that his improved ability to adjust and react to pitches that he demonstrated in the spring, that seems to corresponds with his improved vision, offers hope that Uggla can return to the days of being a 25-30 home run player with a poor batting average, but an acceptable-to-good on base percentage.</p>
<p>I'm not a person who's too keen to put considerable stock into Spring Training statistics, as they're simply an insufficient gauge of a player's true talent due to the lack of data that goes into them. There are certainly players who tear up Spring Training and then have poor regular season campaigns (the story of <span>Mike Moustakas</span>' hot spring and disappointing regular season last year comes to mind), so I'm not willing to predict a career renaissance from Dan Uggla. However, the signs that I've seen thus far have been nothing but positive and I'm optimistic that Uggla could potentially be better than what I and many others expected heading into the season.</p>
<p>I'll be the first to admit that I was skeptical about Uggla heading into the spring, and that I advocated for Tommy La Stella to win the job. To a certain extent, I am still skeptical about Uggla simply due to his advancing age, overall declining contact rate, and his defensive shortcomings, but power and OBP production would certainly quiet my skepticism. Uggla's surprising spring production has me thinking that we could be in for an unexpectedly productive season from him in 2014, which would go a long way towards the Braves' ultimate goals of a division title and a <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series" class="sbn-auto-link">World Series</a> trophy. I highly doubt that Uggla has any chance to be much better than a league-average regular when things are all said and done, simply due to the fact that he's a defensive liability and on the wrong side of the aging curve, but considering the horrid 2nd half that Uggla had in 2013 and the low expectations for him heading into 2014, I think most of us would happily take that from Dan.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/29/5552208/what-to-make-of-dan-ugglas-surprisingly-good-springIan.Morris2014-03-25T10:00:13-04:002014-03-25T10:00:13-04:002014 NL East Preview: Who will finish on top?
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<p>Take a look at the possible candidates to win 2014 NL East crown and their respective strengths and weaknesses. Will the Braves repeat as champions, or will someone knock them from the top spot?</p> <p>Well, now that Andrew and Demetrius have finished their excellent previews of the <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Miami Marlins</a>, <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">New York Mets</a>, <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Philadelphia Phillies</a>, and <a href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Washington Nationals</a>, it's time to decide who's going to walk away with the 2014 NL East crown.</p>
<p>As you can probably ascertain from the image accompanying this post, I ultimately believe that the two teams who'll fight it out for the division title this year will be the reigning champion <a href="https://www.talkingchop.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Atlanta Braves</a> (man, isn't that nice to say?) and the Washington Nationals. While the two teams that figure to fight for spots one and two in the division project to be two of the NL's strongest, this is a division that's severely lacking in depth. I would be surprised to see any of the other three division teams in the NL East compete for a playoff spot, or even finish with a winning record, despite bright spots such as the delightful José Fernández, <span>David Wright</span>, and Chase Utley on all of those clubs. Let's break down the contenders (and non-contenders) and try to figure out which team will win this thing.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">--------------------------------------------------</p>
<p align="center"><b>The Non-Contenders</b></p>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> <b>Miami Marlins</b> </li>
</ul>
<p>I actually think it's quite possible that the Marlins won't be completely inept in 2014, as they were in most of 2013. Although there probably won't be much of a manifestation of the team's young talent in the upcoming season in terms of wins, Miami has a solid core of young talent, including 2013 NL Rookie of the Year José Fernández, <span>Nathan Eovaldi</span>, <span>Christian Yelich</span>, <span>Giancarlo Stanton</span>, and Jake Marisnick. Much of this talent isn't necessarily of the "2014 impact" variety, however, and there are other huge question marks on their roster. Although Jarrod Saltalamacchia, signed as a free agent in the offseason, will likely represent an upgrade over last year's grotesquely bad cornucopia of <span>Jeff Mathis</span> and <span>Rob Brantly</span> (with some <span>Miguel Olivo</span> added in for fun!), the Marlins still have massive question marks spread throughout the entirety of their infield. <span>Adeiny Hechavarria</span> was one of the league's worst regulars in 2013, and <span>Casey McGehee</span>, Garret Jones, and <span>Rafael Furcal</span> don't figure to be much better. Furthermore, there isn't much pitching depth, and the Marlins' rotation behind Fernández is a bit of a question mark. Eovaldi, Álvarez, and <span>Jacob Turner</span> are all talented, but inexperienced and young, and the Marlins' fifth starter options are not exactly awe-inspiring.</p>
<p>I expect the Marlins to once again finish in the cellar of the NL East in 2014, albeit with marked improvement over their ugly 100-loss campaign in 2013. With improvements from the catching position, a rebound year from Giancarlo Stanton, and maturation and development of their young talent, I think it's reasonable to expect the Marlins to be a candidate to win more games in 2014 than they did in 2013. They still won't be much fun to watch (other than when Fernàndez takes the mound every fifth day), but Marlins fans will be happy to see a team that's not quite as inept as 2013's incarnation of the team. This team will struggle mightily to score runs, but relatively strong pitching will allow them to avoid being blown out with frequency. It will be interesting to see how GM Dan Jennings and the Marlins' ownership work in the trade market this season, as there are pieces that would likely be of interest to contenders in need, such as closer <span>Steve Cishek</span>. I don't foresee Giancarlo Stanton being traded at this point, but hey, the Marlins haven't shown much restraint in dealing their franchise players in the past.</p>
<p><b>Projected Record: </b>69-93</p>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> <b>Philadelphia Phillies</b> </li>
</ul>
<p>The Phillies have fallen on hard times lately. Philadelphia's reign of dominance over the NL East (and the Braves) from 2007-2011 seems far away, as the Phillies have finished with a sub-.500 record the past two seasons and have made some, uh, curious personnel moves in the process. General Manager Rubén Amaro Jr. has assembled a collection of expensive, veteran players in an attempt to compete in 2014, and added to the team's veteran core by signing free agents Marlon Byrd and AJ Burnett in the offseason. Burnett will join Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels at the top of the rotation, making for a solid tandem to anchor Philadelphia's pitching staff in 2014. Hamels is expected to miss at least a month at the beginning of the season due to arm fatigue. There's simply not much to be excited about behind those three in the rotation, as Kyle Kendrick and Roberto Hernández (formerly known as Fausto Carmona) look to be the most likely candidates to fill out the back of the rotation. Newly-signed Cuban import Miguel Alfredo González (currently sidelined with shoulder soreness), Ethan Martin, and Jonathan Pettibone are potential candidates for rotation spots during Hamels' time on the disabled list. The Phillies project to be a bad defensive club, and that isn't going to do the pitching staff any favors. The Phillies' lineup shouldn't be a complete disaster, as Chase Utley, Domonic Brown, Carlos Ruiz, and Marlon Byrd are all decent hitters that should form the nucleus of the Phillies' order. Jimmy Rollins (if Ryne Sandberg even lets him play) and Ryan Howard will likely continue to be expensive, old, and unproductive, and the Phillies will look to find some production from the third base spot in the form of Cody Asche (or potentially Maikel Franco, down the road) and from Ben Revere, who struggled mightily during his first season in Philadelphia last year.</p>
<p>All in all, I think the Phillies will have a 2014 that ends up being almost a mirror image of 2013: they'll struggle with injuries, their GM will be on the hot seat, and they won't sniff a .500 record or the playoffs. I really don't like the back end of that rotation, and I'm not sold on the fact that AJ Burnett will be able to replicate his 2013 campaign (especially considering the massive drop-off in defense behind him from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia). With a set of players as old as the Phillies', injuries are almost certain to become an issue. Carlos Ruiz, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, AJ Burnett, and Cliff Lee are all 34 or older, and it's just tough to envision a scenario in which all of those players stay on the field and produce consistently. Amaro's offseason seemed to be a last-ditch attempt to salvage his job as general manager, and it would not surprise me to see him ousted from his position in the event that the Phillies and new manager Ryne Sandberg struggle through yet another season with an old, expensive core and a complete dearth of young talent. I see them finishing fourth in the division, although it wouldn't shock me to see the Marlins finish with a better record than them if the injury problems are worse than expected.</p>
<p><b>Projected Record: </b>72-90</p>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> <b>New York Mets</b> </li>
</ul>
<p>The Mets will look to improve in 2014 after yet another losing season, 2013 being their being their 5<sup>th</sup>consecutive, despite the loss of <span>Matt Harvey</span> and a relatively inexperienced roster. The Mets will look for an offensive shot in the arm from newly-signed outfielder <span>Curtis Granderson</span>, Rookie of the Year candidate Travis d'Arnaud, and their consistently fantastic third baseman, David Wright. The Mets are also hoping for a bounce back season from first baseman <span>Ike Davis</span>, who put up an offensive season that rivaled BJ Upton's in terms of its lack of production. The Mets' pitching staff looks to be anchored by starters Bartolo Colón and Dillon Gee. Highly-touted prospect and Georgia native <span>Zack Wheeler</span> will look to make his mark on the rotation in 2014, and it's possible that we'll see another impressive arm come up from the Mets' minor league system in the form of right-handed starter Noah Syndergaard. The bullpen is a bit of a question mark, although closer <span>Bobby Parnell</span> had an effective 2013 campaign and figures to be a decent bet to provide stability to the back end of New York's bullpen. They did sign combustible former <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Tigers</a>' closer José Valverde in the offseason, so, there's that. The Mets still have a few question marks, such as whether defensive wizard <span>Juan Lagares</span> (the almost certainly better option) or speedster Eric Young Jr. will earn the starting center field job, and whether or not Rubén Tejada will be able to handle the shortstop position on a daily basis.</p>
<p>There are certainly signs of optimism for a Mets club that has been plagued by mediocrity for years, but I don't expect 2014 to be the season in which the Mets break out and compete for a playoff spot. The Mets do have the strongest crop of Minor League talent in the National League East, and there are quite a few intriguing young players that figure to be a part of their Major League roster in 2014. I would be tempted to say that the Mets could reach the 81-win mark with a healthy Matt Harvey and Jonathan Niese at the top of the rotation, but Harvey almost certainly won't be back until 2015 and Niese's health is in limbo. Make no mistake about it-in 2015 and years beyond that, the Mets will have a formidable rotation and could emerge as a contending team. However, the combination of inexperience, a thin rotation, and a middling offense should preclude them from competing in 2014. The Mets seem to be on the right path, but their fans will likely have to wait a bit longer to be competitive. There should be brighter days in Queens ahead, but I'm not sold on the fact that the sun will emerge in 2014.</p>
<p><br><b>Projected Record: </b>75-87</p>
<p> </p>
<p style="text-align: center;">--------------------------------------------------</p>
<p style="text-align: center;"> </p>
<p align="center"><b>The Contenders</b></p>
<p>I'm going to break the format for the "contenders" section of the post and do more of a direct comparison between the two likely NL East contenders, the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves. These two teams are the only two in the division that seem to have a shot of finishing above .500 and competing for a playoff spot. Although the Braves got off to fast start and never looked back in 2013, finishing the year 10 games ahead of the Nationals in the NL East standings, the race between the two clubs in 2014 figures to be much tighter. The Nationals will employ arguably the strongest rotation in the National League in hopes of re-capturing the division from Atlanta, and the Braves will look for big seasons from their exceedingly young core of players, such as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Julio Teherán, and Mike Minor, in order to repeat as divison champions for the first time since the final two seasons of their 14-season streak of division titles that ended in 2005. Although the NL East projects to be a shallow division, and quite frankly one of the weakest divisions in all of Major League Baseball, the fight for the two top spots in the division will likely feature two of the most talented and exciting teams in all of baseball. Let's break down how the Braves and the Nationals stack up.</p>
<p align="center"><b>Rotations</b></p>
<p><b>Atlanta Projected Rotation:</b></p>
<p>1. Julio Teherán</p>
<p>2. Mike Minor</p>
<p>3. Ervin Santana</p>
<p>4. Alex Wood</p>
<p>5. Aaron Harang/David Hale/Gavin Floyd</p>
<p>The Braves' rotation, while young and talented, suffered two large blows in Spring Training with the losses of both Kris Medlen, a revelation for Atlanta who began an excellent season-and-a-half long run for the Braves with a stellar 2012 second half, and Brandon Beachy. Both Medlen and Beachy figured to be members of Atlanta's rotation prior to their respective UCL tears, so there's no question that their absences will be difficult to overcome for Atlanta's rotation. However, Julio Teherán, Mike Minor, Alex Wood, and Ervin Santana should comprise a solid, if unspectacular, top four of the rotation for the Braves in 2014 in their absence. Teherán, the 23-year-old who will take the mound as Atlanta's opening day starter next Monday afternoon in Milwaukee, put together a strong rookie campaign for the Braves in 2013 with a 3.20 ERA (3.76 xFIP) and 170 strikeouts with only 49 walks in 185.2 innings of work. Many are prognosticating a step forward for the young Colombian righty in 2014, although prediction systems such as ZiPS and Steamer are not as bullish on him in 2014. Wood, a 2012 second-round selection out of the University of Georgia, dominated every level of the Minor Leagues that he reached before graduating to Atlanta last June. He made his mark as both a starter and reliever for the Braves in 2013, although he ended up being more effective as a reliever. It will be interesting to monitor how the Braves handle Wood's usage, as he may be limited in his innings by management in an attempt to preserve and protect his left arm for the long run. Minor put together a consistent and solid season for Atlanta in 2013, as he stayed healthy throughout the campaign and boosted his strikeout rate while limiting home runs, which plagued him at times during his rookie season in 2012. It's important to note that Minor is currently behind in his preparations for the season as a result of a sore shoulder, so he will be unable to join the rotation until likely late April. Santana's 2013 season for the <a href="https://www.royalsreview.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Kansas City Royals</a> was one of the most unexpected stories of the season, as he put his -1.0 fWAR season in 2012 as a Los Angeles Angel behind him and put together an impressive season in his only year as a Royal. The Braves signed him after Medlen and Beachy's injuries as a means of adding another viable starter to their rotation, and they will be banking on him to induce ground balls, limit his walks, and avoid the home run plague that has destroyed his effectiveness in prior years. The fifth starter is a bit of a question mark for the Braves, as they will look to three names who could possibly fulfill this role down the stretch for Atlanta in 2014. Newly-signed righty Aaron Harang is a veteran righty whose better days are clearly behind him, David Hale is a rookie who made a strong debut in two starts for Atlanta in 2013, and offseason addition Gavin Floyd is a veteran starter who has been solid, if unspectacular, for Philadelphia and the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">White Sox</a> during most of the previous decade. The Braves will likely employ either García or Hale until Floyd is ready to pitch following Tommy John recovery (he's anticipated to make his return in May or June), and will probably have to use both pitchers until Mike Minor is ready to pitch following his shoulder ailment. If Floyd is able to regain his pre-injury form (reports have been positive thus far), I believe he'll ultimately serve as Atlanta's fifth starter down the stretch in 2014. Of course, things do not always go as planned for pitching rotations, and injuries are always a concern. So, it's possible that all three of these pitchers could see a significant number of starts in 2014. In case of disaster, the Braves could turn to minor leaguers such as Aaron Northcraft, Cody Martin, or Gus Schlosser, who would likely provide around replacement player-level production.</p>
<p><b>Washington Projected Rotation</b></p>
<p>1. <span>Stephen Strasburg</span></p>
<p>2. Gio González</p>
<p>3. <span>Jordan Zimmermann</span></p>
<p>4. <span>Doug Fister</span></p>
<p>5. <span>Taylor Jordan</span>/<span>Tanner Roark</span></p>
<p>Washington's rotation looks to be the unrivaled strength of its team in 2014. The Nats will trot out a top four of former first overall pick Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio González, and the newly-acquired Doug Fister, a formidable quartet. Strasburg has struggled with control and injuries at times in the past, but his upside and talent is undeniable. He has some of the best pure stuff in the game, and is coming off of a strong 3.2 win season in 2014. Zimmermann is a prototypical #2 starter, and although he is unspectacular, the 2013 All-Star is a good bet to eat up a lot of innings and post quality numbers for the Nationals. González had a breakout season for the Nationals in 2012, finishing second in Cy Young voting, but regressed a bit in 2013, struggling with control and the home run ball. I would bet on a bit of a bounce-back from Gio in 2014, and he would likely be one of the best third starters in the game in such a scenario. The Nationals stole Doug Fister from the Tigers during the offseason, only giving up reliever <span>Ian Krol</span>, utility player <span>Steve Lombardozzi</span>, and left-handed pitching prospect <span>Robbie Ray</span> in exchange for an excellent pitcher. Fister has elite control and does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground; it would shock me if he weren't the National League's best fourth starter. The Nats still haven't quite decided who will assume the role as the team's fifth starter, but it looks as of now that they have two possible options: Jordan and Roark. To me, it seems as if Roark is the favorite, as he posted an impressive 1.4 fWAR season with a 2.41 FIP in 53.2 innings (5 starts thrown in there) for Washington in 2013, and he's continued to pitch well in the spring. He's a pretty safe bet to be an okay back-of-the rotation pitcher, as he uses his sinker to generate ground balls and doesn't walk many batters. Jordan isn't too dissimilar from Roark, but he generally strikes out fewer batters while relying on the ground ball and good control for effectiveness. Other potential options for the Nationals in case of injury are former Met and Padre <span>Chris Young</span> (although he may opt out of his minor league deal if the Nats send him down to the Minors, which appears likely at this point), lefty Ross Detweiler, who will begin the season as a left-handed option in the Nats' pen, and <span>Ross Ohlendorf</span>, who will likely begin their 2014 seasons at triple-A Syracuse.</p>
<p>Advantage: <b>Washington</b></p>
<p align="center"><b>Bullpens</b></p>
<p><b>Atlanta Projected Bullpen:</b></p>
<p>Craig Kimbrel, RHP</p>
<p>Jordan Walden, RHP</p>
<p>Luís Ávilan, LHP</p>
<p><span>David Carpenter</span>, RHP</p>
<p>Ian Thomas, LHP</p>
<p>Cory Gearrin, RHP</p>
<p>Anthony Varvaro, RHP</p>
<p>Other Options: David Hale, RHP, Gus Schlosser, RHP, Atahualpa Severino, LHP, Jonny Venters, LHP</p>
<p>Atlanta's bullpen was the best in baseball in 2013, leading the Majors in ERA. Leading the way for Atlanta's strong bullpen was Craig Kimbrel, probably the best closer in baseball. Although Kimbrel suffered a bit of regression after his unparalleled 2012 season, he was one of the top three closers in the game along with <span>Greg Holland</span> and Kenley Jansen. Barring an injury, it's hard to imagine Kimbrel doing anything but continuing to excel in his role as the Braves' closer. The only real way that he could be better is if his manager would better utilize him in more multi-inning appearances and high-leverage situations, but that's another topic for another day. Kimbrel's control will be something to watch, as his walk rate rose a bit in 2013 (while his strikeout rate dropped). Still, Kimbrel's stellar bullpen work should be an important asset to the Braves in the upcoming season. David Carpenter and Jordan Walden (if he can stay healthy) will serve as the Braves' two primary right-handed late inning relievers. Carpenter was a revelation for the Braves in 2013 as one of Frank Wren's many cheap, but valuable, waiver acquisitions. Roger McDowell and the rest of the Braves' staff worked their magic with Carpenter, allowing him to continue to strike out a high percentage of hitters while experiencing a drastic drop in walks. Walden, acquired from the <a href="https://www.halosheaven.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Angels</a> last offseason, was effective when healthy for the Braves in 2013, but he struggled with injuries as he has for much of his career. He's similar to Carpenter in that he is a right-handed power pitcher who relies heavily on the strikeout to succeed. The primary left-handed reliever out of the bullpen will be Luís Ávilan, who posted an excellent 1.52 ERA in 2013, albeit with less-than-stellar peripherals that suggested that his success was largely influenced by good fortune. It wouldn't surprise me for Ávilan to experience a bounce back in his strikeout rate, but to post a poorer ERA. The other components of the Braves' bullpen aren't as clear-cut. Cory Gearrin will likely open the season in the Braves' ‘pen due to being out of Minor League options. He should be used strictly as a ROOGY, as his platoon splits are fairly drastic. Other right-handed bullpen candidates are swingman Anthony Varvaro and Minor Leaguer Gus Schlosser, both of whom would be used primarily in low-leverage situations. The final spot in the Braves' bullpen will almost certainly go to a left-handed reliever, but it's still unclear who will win the spot. At this point, the favorites figure to be Atahualpa Severino and Ian Thomas, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Frank Wren make another sly move for a lefty with the ability to get left-handed hitters out before the beginning of the season.</p>
<p><b>Washington Projected Bullpen:</b></p>
<p><span>Rafael Soriano</span>, RHP</p>
<p><span>Tyler Clippard</span>, RHP</p>
<p><span>Drew Storen</span>, RHP</p>
<p><span>Craig Stammen</span>, RHP</p>
<p><span>Ryan Mattheus</span>, RHP</p>
<p><span>Jerry Blevins</span>, LHP</p>
<p>Ross Detweiler, LHP</p>
<p>Other options: Xavier Cedeño, LHP, <span>Chris Young</span>, RHP, Michael González, LHP</p>
<p>Washington's bullpen was a sore spot in 2013, as they finished 17<sup>th</sup> in baseball with a 3.56 ERA. The poster boy for the Nationals' bullpens struggles in 2013 was high-leverage righty Drew Storen, who posted an unsightly 4.52 ERA. He looks to bounce back and return to his previous form as a great righty out of the ‘pen for Washington. Closer Rafael Soriano was nothing special in 2013, and it looks as if he's slowly but surely trending downward as he closes in on his age 34 season. He's probably a good bet to register a strikeout rate of ~20% with decent control, but as a fly ball pitcher, he does sometimes fall prone to the home run bug. Setup man Tyler Clippard is another extreme fly ball pitcher, but with better strikeout stuff than Soriano. He posted a 2.41 ERA for Washington in 2013 and looks to be a solid setup guy for the back of the Nats' pen. The biggest surprise in the Nats' bullpen in 2013, righty Craig Stammen, is a capable high-leverage reliever who the Nats can use to generate ground balls in warranted situations. The final righty in the Nationals' bullpen will likely be Ryan Mattheus, although he may not be ready for the beginning of the season due to chest inflammation. The two left-handed members of Washington's bullpen figure to be former Oakland Athletic Jerry Blevins and converted starter Ross Detwiler. Neither Detweiler nor Blevins are particularly spectacular, but they should both be used as medium-leverage options and in high-leverage situations against left-handed hitters.</p>
<p><b>Advantage: </b>Atlanta</p>
<p align="center"><b>Starting Lineups</b></p>
<p><b>Atlanta Projected Lineup:</b></p>
<p>1. Jason Heyward, RF</p>
<p>2. BJ Upton, CF</p>
<p>3. Freddie Freeman, 1B</p>
<p>4. Justin Upton, LF</p>
<p>5. Chris Johnson, 3B</p>
<p>6. Evan Gattis, C</p>
<p>7. Dan Uggla, 2B</p>
<p>8. Andrelton Simmons, SS</p>
<p>Atlanta will look to improve its offensive output in 2014, after posting an exactly league-average wRC+ as a whole in 2013. The top of the lineup will be anchored by Jason Heyward, who is a candidate for a breakout 2014 campaign after posting a 120 wRC+ (equal to his 2012 figure) despite posting an abnormally low BABIP in 2013. I believe that we're likely to see an excellent offensive season in 2014 due to normalization of BABIP luck, as well promising peripheral skill improvements that he displayed in 2013, including improved contact and walk rates, as well as a lower strikeout rate. Of course, this is without even discussing Heyward's elite defense in the outfield, which is an underrated asset of his game. BJ Upton had an absolutely putrid 2013 and quite frankly looked embarrassingly lost as a hitter throughout much of the season, but Fredi González looks to be comfortable placing him high in the lineup after a somewhat promising spring. I'd be content with a return to somewhere around league-average for BJ in 2014. Freeman, who put together a fantastic offensive season in 2013 with a 150 wRC+, good for 10<sup>th</sup> of 140 qualified hitters in the majors, will man the 3-hole for Atlanta and look to up his power numbers to compensate for a likely drop in BABIP. Justin Upton's 2014 would ideally be a bit more consistent than his extremely streaky 2013, but he figures to be a good bet to produce good power numbers and on-base skills in the cleanup spot. His defense was unexpectedly putrid in 2013, so it will be interesting to see if he makes any improvements after his first season in Atlanta as a full-time left fielder. Chris Johnson overcame his defensive shortcomings in 2013 for Atlanta, putting together a fairly unexpected 3-win season on the strength of a strong batting average. His BABIP was astronomically high, and I would be surprised if he didn't regress back towards being just slightly above league average in terms of offensive production. Gattis is expected to see the majority of the club's starts behind the plate in 2014, but his ability to stay healthy and play defense behind the plate worries me. His power is elite, but he struggled during much of the second half of 2013 after pitchers seemed to begin to make some adjustments. He'll need to do a better job of making contact and working the count in order to succeed offensively for the Braves. It wasn't certain that Uggla would even be the Braves' second baseman in 2014 after he was dropped in favor of <span>Elliot Johnson</span> on the Braves' playoff roster after a horrific second half. His strong performance this spring (and his contract) have won him the job, however, and he'll look to bounce back in 2014. Uggla is almost certain to have a horrendous batting average, but a decent OBP due to his patience and ability to draw walks, and produce in the power department. If he struggles initially, the Braves could look to Tommy La Stella in order to provide a shot in the arm offensively for the club. Andrelton Simmons is the best defensive talent on planet Earth, and it's almost a given that he'll be at least a 4 or 5-win player for Atlanta due to his consistently spectacular defensive play at shortstop. He'll likely be a player whose offensive production fluctuates around league-average (if not slightly below) in most years, but his power was an unexpected surprise for Atlanta in 2014.</p>
<p><b>Washington Projected Lineup:</b></p>
<p>1. Denard Span, CF</p>
<p>2. Ian Desmond, SS</p>
<p>3. <span>Ryan Zimmerman</span>, 3B</p>
<p>4. Jayson Werth, RF</p>
<p>5. Bryce Harper, LF</p>
<p>6. <span>Wilson Ramos</span>, C</p>
<p>7. <span>Adam LaRoche</span>, 1B</p>
<p>8. Anthony Rendón, 2B</p>
<p>At the top of Washington's lineup will be Denard Span, who had a sneakily good season for Washington last year. He was average offensively, but strong defense numbers propelled him to a 3.5 fWAR campaign. I'd be surprised to see much deviance from this for Span in 2014; he should be a solid player. Ian Desmond is, in my opinion, one of the most underrated players in baseball, as he is an above-average defender and offensive shortstop with power (he's hit more than 20 home runs in both of the previous two seasons), and should be approaching the peak of his career at age 29. He's been a 5-win player in each of the previous two seasons, and he's a good bet to be one of the Nats' best players in 2014. Ryan Zimmerman, the longest tenured National, produced a 125 wRC+ in 2013, but his value was hurt by poor defense related to a shoulder ailment that reduced his ability to make accurate throws from the hot corner. Zimmerman will almost surely be valuable offensively, but defensive improvement (and a healthy season) is necessary if Zim is to return to being close to his value in past years. The soon-to-be 35-year old Jayson Werth will man right field for Washington in 2014, provided that he can stay healthy, and is a good bet to be an offensive player around 25% better than league average (according to ZiPS and Steamer), but has become a bit of a liability defensively. Bryce Harper has yet to fully realize his immense potential, but at age 21(!), this should not be surprising. It would not be a shock to see him in the midst of the MVP competition if he can begin to solve some of his difficulty in hitting left-handed pitching (his slash against lefties in 2013 was an ugly .214/.327/.321) and avoid injury. Harper has prodigious power potential, is one of the most athletic players in baseball, and could very well develop into the league's premiere players in the upcoming season. It's curious that <span>Matt Williams</span> is penciling him into the fifth hole in the lineup, as he has the most offensive upside on the club, but as someone partial to the Braves, I'm not complaining. Behind Harper is catcher Wilson Ramos, who has never played a full season in the Majors since his debut in 2011, but possesses strong defensive skills and is an above-average offensive performer. Steamer and ZiPS both project a wRC+ in the neighborhood of 110 (with an ISO around .175) for Ramos. He isn't frequently discussed when one talks about the strengths of Washington's club, but I think he's a breakout candidate in 2014. Former Brave Adam LaRoche figures to be the weakest starter for Washington, as he's a first baseman who's probably an average defender for his position at this point in his career as well as a poor hitter for his position. Rounding out Washington's projected starters is second baseman Anthony Rendón. Regarded as a strong offensive player since his days as a Rice Owl, Rendón made his debut in the big leagues after <span>Danny Espinosa's</span> anemic start to the 2013 season. Despite his track record of fragility, he's an offensively-productive second baseman when healthy and handled the transition from playing third base in the minors to second in the bigs smoothly.</p>
<p><b>Advantage</b>: slight Washington</p>
<p align="center"><b>Bench Players</b></p>
<p align="center"> </p>
<p><b>Atlanta Projected Bench</b></p>
<p>Gerald Laird, C</p>
<p>Ryan Doumit, C/OF</p>
<p>Ramiro Peña, IF</p>
<p>Tyler Pastornicky, IF</p>
<p>Jordan Schafer, OF</p>
<p>Gerald Laird and Ryan Doumit give Atlanta two catching options during Evan Gattis' days off, as he is likely to only catch approximately 110 games in the upcoming season. Doumit, acquired from Minnesota in exchange for <span>Sean Gilmartin</span> in the offseason, will be the Braves' primary left-handed bench bat. He had a bit of a down season offensively in 2013, posting a below-average wRC+ (98) for the first time since his debut season with Pittsburgh in 2006, as his ISO dipped nearly 40 points from his 2012 season. I'm not banking on Doumit to be anything special off of the bench for Atlanta in 2013, but hopefully picking his spots against righties and a more favorable offensive environment at Turner Field will help give a boost for his numbers. The Braves' utility infielders will be Ramiro Peña and Tyler Pastornicky. Peña had a fantastic season for the Braves as a utility guy in 2013 until shoulder surgery prematurely ended his season, posting a .278/.330/.443 line while providing defensive versatility. Quite frankly, it would be shocking to see Peña perform anywhere near his 2013 offensively in 2014, but his defensive value and versatility should make him a quality bench option regardless. Pastornicky is what he is: an unexciting player who's average defensively when playing second base (but a bit of a disaster at shortstop) and uninspiring offensively. Rounding out the Braves' bench is speedy outfielder Jordan Schafer, who experienced a bit of a renaissance in Atlanta in 2013. He provided excellent value for Atlanta on the basepaths, stealing 22 bases in 28 attempts, as well as playing solid outfield defense and getting on base at an acceptable clip.</p>
<p><b>Washington Projected Bench</b></p>
<p>José Lobatón, C</p>
<p>Danny Espinosa, IF</p>
<p><span>Jamey Carroll</span>, IF</p>
<p>Scott Hairston, OF</p>
<p>Nate McLouth, OF</p>
<p>The Nats' bench looks to have three new faces in 2014, as three of the five members I project to make up their bench were added in the offseason via trade or free agency. The most expensive member of Washington's bench, left-handed hitting outfielder Nate McLouth, was signed to a two-year deal worth upwards of $10 million after he posted 2.5 fWAR as a full-time outfielder for Baltimore. He's best used as a corner outfielder, as defense is not his calling card, and should be a capable hitter from the left side. Lobatón will serve as Washington's backup catcher in 2014, after being acquired from the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Rays</a> in the offseason. He's a switch-hitter who's pretty much your prototypical backup catcher in that he's capable defensively behind the plate but middling offensively. Jamey Carroll isn't a certainty to make Washington's 25-man roster (this spot could go to outfielder <span>Tyler Moore</span>), but I think he'll make the roster as a veteran player with the ability to play both second and third base capably (and shortstop in a pinch) despite his offensive shortcomings and advanced age. The other projected backup infielder for the Nationals, Danny Espinosa, lost his starting role after struggling with injury and poor play in 2013, but he'll function as a nice switch-hitting power option and could easily regain a starting role with an Anthony Rendón injury. Finally, Scott Hairston rounds out the bench as a fifth outfielder. His offensive production dropped precipitously in 2013 after two surprisingly good campaigns in 2011 and 2012, but this was largely due to an almost unbelievably low BABIP of .185. Hairston should serve as a nice right-handed bat with decent power for Washington in 2014 and should improve his overall production with better luck.</p>
<p><b>Advantage:</b> slight Washington</p>
<p align="center"><b>Overall Forecast</b></p>
<p align="center" style="text-align: left;">This probably won't go over well with the community here at Talking Chop, but I'm picking the Washington Nationals as the 2014 NL East champions. I foresee them riding strong starting pitching from one of the best rotations in the game to a division crown in 2014, provided that they aren't hamstrung by injury and that they experience better luck than they did in their surprising 2013 season. It would be tough for me to pick the Braves considering lingering injury question marks in the starting rotation and the fact that the only unit in which they have a clear leg up on Washington is in the bullpen. This goes without saying, but while we can certainly attempt to prognosticate what exactly will happen in a baseball season, there are thousands of variables not limited to, but including, luck and injuries that can drastically change the landscape of a division race. The difference in talent between the two clubs is small enough that it would not surprise me to see either team win the division, but I grade out Washington as being just slightly better than Atlanta at this point in time. There are so many intriguing players to watch between these two teams. Atlanta has Jason Heyward, while Washington has Bryce Harper. Atlanta has Julio Teherán, while Washington has Stephen Strasburg. Atlanta has Andrelton Simmons, while Washington has Ian Desmond. No matter who walks away with the division title at the end of this September, I anticipate a tight race full of hotly-contested games between the two clubs and not much separation in the standings throughout the duration of the season. No matter who wins the division, I expect both teams to make the playoffs (one team as a Wild Card game participant), so all will not be lost for the 2<sup>nd</sup>place team.</p>
<p><b>Atlanta Projected Record</b>: 93-69</p>
<p><b>Washington Projected Record: </b>95-67</p>
<p>With the beginning of the season just around the corner, including a series between the Nationals and the Braves during the first weekend of the season at Nationals Park, I'm ready to stop wondering what will happen and actually watch what plays out. I'm hoping for a fun race between the two clubs, and I can't wait to see what 2014 will have in store.</p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/25/5528610/the-2014-nl-east-who-will-finish-on-topIan.Morris2014-03-20T15:30:02-04:002014-03-20T15:30:02-04:002014 New York Mets Preview
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<figcaption>Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Talking Chop takes a look at the Braves' divisional rivals for 2014. After previewing the Marlins, it's time to meet the Mets.</p> <p><span>It’s been a tough near-decade for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">New York Mets</a>. The dark days began at the end of the 2007 season, which is when they managed to blow a 7-game lead in the NL East with 17 games to go. The darkness continued into 2008, which is when they blew a 3.5-game lead with 17 to play. The darkest days occurred during 2009, which is when the team bottomed out into a 70-win season and the </span><a href="http://deadspin.com/tag/lolmets">#LOLmets</a><span> movement went into full swing. However, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel for the Mets. Despite only winning 74 games in 2013, the Mets finished in 3rd (ahead of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a>), which was their best finish standings wise since that 2008 season. With plenty of new faces (both veterans and exciting young players such as <span>Matt Harvey</span>, Travis d’Arnaud, and <span>Zack Wheeler</span>), the Mets appear to be on an upward trend. Will they continue to hold steady as the 3rd best team in the NL East?</span></p>
<p> </p>
<h4><span>New Arrivals</span></h4>
<p> </p>
<p><span>RF <span>Curtis Granderson</span> (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/mets-to-sign-curtis-granderson.html">4 yrs, $60 MM</a><span>)</span></p>
<p><span>CF Chris Young (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/mets-to-sign-chris-young.html">1 yr, $7.25 MM</a><span>)</span></p>
<p><span>SP Bartolo Colon (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/mets-to-sign-bartolo-colon.html">2 yrs, $20 MM</a><span>)</span></p>
<p><span>SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/mets-re-sign-daisuke-matsuzaka.html">$1.5 MM Minor League Deal</a><span>)</span></p>
<p><span>SP John Lannan (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/mets-sign-john-lannan.html">$1.5 MM Minor League Deal</a><span>)</span></p>
<p><span>RP Jose Valverde (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/mets-sign-jose-valverde.html">$1 MM Minor League Deal</a><span>)</span></p>
<p><span>RP Kyle Farnsworth (</span><a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/02/mets-sign-kyle-farnsworth.html">$1 MM Minor League Deal</a><span>)</span></p>
<p> </p>
<h4><span>Injury Issues</span></h4>
<p> </p>
<p><span>Matt Harvey’s the big name here. As you all know, he had Tommy John Surgery back in October, and that normally means a 12 month recovery. </span><a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24472896/mets-matt-harvey-declares-hell-pitch-in-2014">No matter what you hear from the man himself</a><span>, the chances that he actually takes the mound this season are very small. Other than that, the Mets have no big injury issues. <span>Ike Davis</span> was walking around in a walking boot earlier this Spring after suffering calf strains (both of his calves got strained. Yeesh.), but he should be good to go once the season starts.</span></p>
<p> </p>
<h4><span>State of the Squad</span></h4>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The Mets definitely have the look of a team that is on the rise, even if there may be a couple of holes in the infield. The star of this show is still </span><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElBKR05g_68">Captain America</a><span> himself, David Wright. Wright will be entering his 11th season with the Mets, and is looking to bounce back from a bit of a down season for his standards in 2013. Granted, it’s kind of hard to say that a line of .307/.390/.514 with 18 HRs and 155 wRC+ is down, but his numbers in 2012 looked much better (especially on defense). That being said, Wright will still be the best player in the Mets infield by a long shot. They’re still saddled with Ike </span><a href="http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10510193/ike-davis-new-york-mets-concealed-oblique-injury-2013">"I Played Through Injury Last Season</a><span> and All I Got Was </span><a href="http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/9358999/new-york-mets-demote-ike-davis-2-others-being-swept">A Trip To Las Vegas For AAA Ball</a><span>" Davis playing first base and a </span><a href="http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/02/25/report-mets-frustrated-by-tejadas-fitness-keeping-tabs-on-drew/">possibly out-of-shape</a><span> <span>Ruben Tejada</span> at shortstop, but they do have a pretty decent 2B in Daniel Murphy. One source of excitement should come from backstop, with rookie Travis d’Arnaud taking the reigns at catcher this season. The big issue with d’Arnaud is health: If he can manage to stay healthy, then the Mets may have a Rookie of the Year candidate in d’Arnaud, especially if d’Arnaud can produce with the bat in addition to his defensive skill.</span></p>
<p><span>The outfield actually has a position battle going on at center field, with Eric Young Jr. battling <span>Juan Lagares</span> for the spot. Lagares should be the logical choice to win the position, but hey, if they want to send one of the better defensive outfielders in baseball out to Las Vegas so that they can get a light-hitting/bad-defending speedster to hit leadoff for them, then </span><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cDLZqe735k&feature=kp">that’s their prerogative</a><span>. The other two outfield positions appear to be set in stone, with new addition Chris Young manning right field while the $60 Million Dollar Man Curtis Granderson takes left field. Both players are projected to be worth around 2-3 wins each in 2014, and they should be good for hitting that number. It's not a spectacular outfield by any means but it's a decent-enough one, even if Terry Collins decides to handicap them defensively by sending Lagares to Las Vegas.</span></p>
<p><span>The Mets’ pitching staff is going to be interesting to watch, even with Matt Harvey spending most of the season rehabbing. The Round Mound of the Pitcher’s Mound Bartolo Colon is back and inexplicably still able to produce at a decent level. He’s 41-years old and yet still as good of a workhorse as you’ll find on the market. This isn’t to say that the Mets aren’t taking on plenty of risk with this deal (I mean, </span><a href="http://gamedayr.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/bartolo-colon-fat.jpg">look at him</a><span>), but considering his production over the past two seasons, if all goes well and Colon inexplicably continues to produce at that level, then this will be a solid little move for New York and one that should at least keep the rotation above water as Harvey makes his way back from TJ surgery. The other intriguing piece of this rotation is Zack Wheeler. After a somewhat inconsistent rookie season (3.42 ERA, 4.17 FIP), the Mets are expecting big things from the young right hander. If Wheeler can reign in his control, he should end up being very valuable to the Mets' rotation. <span>Dillon Gee</span> has proven to be perfectly average over his career so far and appears to be perfectly average in 2014. <span>Jon Niese</span> has been dealing with shoulder issues that seem to have eroded all of the talk of a potential breakout for this guy. However, if he’s healthy, he’ll probably be in the same boat with Gee; pretty average but definitely capable of being productive. The fifth starter position is completely up for grabs, but be on the lookout for heavily-hyped prospect <span>Noah Syndergaard</span> to come up in September.</span></p>
<p><span>The Mets’ rotation will have to make sure that they produce, because this bullpen is not looking good outside of <span>Bobby Parnell</span>, who took on the closer role in 2013 and should keep it going into 2014. Parnell is easily the most reliable guy in this bullpen, which means that a young crew that struggled mightily in 2013 (accumulating a grand total of 0.1 fWAR as a unit in 2013, good for 27th in all of baseball with a collective ERA & FIP of 3.98 and 4.02, respectively) is probably going to struggle just as much in 2014.</span></p>
<p> </p>
<h4><span>Projection</span></h4>
<p> </p>
<p><span>If they had Matt Harvey, they’d be a solid pick for 3rd place. He was a 6-win pitcher (according to Fangraphs) last season before he went down for TJ surgery, and there was no reason to expect a disappointment heading into his 3rd season. Unfortunately, his 3rd season will be coming in 2015 instead of 2014, which means the Mets will have to make do with what they have. They’ll still probably retain their hold on 3rd place, but it’ll be a dogfight between them and the Phillies all season, with 80~ wins being the ceiling. They aren’t terrible, but they'll need absolutely everything possible to go their way just to be in the playoff hunt this season.</span></p>
https://www.batterypower.com/2014/3/20/5513556/2014-new-york-mets-previewDemetrius Bell